工業4.0下 我國螺絲螺帽產業轉型升級策略

The price-to-book value ratio is also helpful to investors valuating a company. It compares a stock's per-share price (market value) to its book value (shareholders' equity). The price-to-book value ratio, expressed as a multiple (i.e. how many times a company's stock is trading per share compared to the company's book value per share), is an indication of how much shareholders are paying for the net assets of a company.

The book value of a company is the value of a company's assets expressed on the balance sheet. It is the difference between the balance sheet assets and balance sheet liabilities and is an estimation of the value if it were to be liquidated.

The price/book value ratio, often expressed simply as "price-to-book", provides investors a way to compare the market value, or what they are paying for each share, to a conservative measure of the value of the firm.

Formula:

Components:

The dollar amount in the numerator, $67.44, is the closing stock price for the fictitious Zinzibar Holdings as of December 30, 2017, as reported in the financial press or over the Internet in online quotes. In the denominator, the book value per share is calculated by dividing the reported shareholders' equity (balance sheet) by the number of common shares outstanding (balance sheet) to obtain the $18.90 book value per-share figure. By simply dividing, the equation gives us the price/book value ratio indicating that, as of Zinzibar Holdings' 2017 fiscal yearend, its stock was trading at 3.6-times the company's book value of $18.90 per share.

Variations:

A conservative alternative to using a company's reported shareholders' equity (book value) figure would be to deduct a company's intangible assets from its reported shareholders' equity to arrive at a tangible shareholders' equity (tangible book value) amount. For example, Zinzibar Holdings' FY 2017 balance sheet reports goodwill (in millions $) of $2,428.8 and net intangible assets of $756.6, which total $3,185.4. If we deduct these intangible assets from its shareholders' equity of $4,682.8 of the same date, Zinzibar Holdings is left with a significantly reduced tangible shareholders' equity of $1,497.4. Factoring this amount into our equation, the company has a book value per share of only $6.04, and the price/book value ratio then skyrockets to 11.2 times.

Commentary:

If a company's stock price (market value) is lower than its book value, it can indicate one of two possibilities. The first scenario is that the stock is being unfairly or incorrectly undervalued by investors because of some transitory circumstance and represents an attractive buying opportunity at a bargain price. That's the way value investors think. It is assumed that the company's positive fundamentals are still in place and will eventually lift it to a much higher price level.

On the other hand, if the market's low opinion and valuation of the company are correct (the way growth investors think), at least over the foreseeable future, as a stock investment, it will be perceived at its worst as a losing proposition and at its best as being a stagnant investment.

Some analysts feel that because a company's assets are recorded at historical cost that its book value is of limited use. Outside the United States, some countries' accounting standards allow for the revaluation of the property, plant and equipment components of fixed assets in accordance with prescribed adjustments for inflation. Depending on the age of these assets and their physical location, the difference between current market value and book value can be substantial, and most likely favor the former with a much higher value than the latter.

Also, intellectual property, particularly as we progress at a fast pace into the so-called "information age", is difficult to assess in terms of value. Book value may well grossly undervalue these kinds of assets, both tangible and intangible.

The P/B ratio therefore has its shortcomings but is still widely used as a valuation metric. It is probably more relevant for use by investors looking at capital-intensive or finance-related businesses, such as banks.

In terms of general usage, it appears that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is firmly entrenched as the valuation of choice by the investment community. (Skip ahead to the P/E chapter here.)

What is a 'Financial Crisis'

A financial crisis is a situation in which the value of financial institutions or assets drops rapidly. A financial crisis is often associated with a panic or a run on the banks, in which investors sell off assets or withdraw money from savings accounts with the expectation that the value of those assets will drop if they remain at a financial institution.

BREAKING DOWN 'Financial Crisis'

A financial crisis can occur as a result of institutions or assets being overvalued, and it can be exacerbated by irrational investor behavior. A rapid string of selloffs can further result in lower asset prices or more savings withdrawals. If left unchecked, the crisis can cause the economy to go into a recessionor depression.

How the 2008 Financial Crisis Happened

The 2008 financial crisis was the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression of 1929. The root cause has been traced to no one single event or reason. Rather, it was the result of a sequence of events, each with its own triggering mechanism that led to near collapse of the banking system. It has been argued that the seeds of the crisis were sown as far back as the 1970s with Community Development Act, which forced banks to loosen their credit requirements for lower-income minorities, creating a market for subprime mortgages.

The amount of subprime mortgage debt, which was guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, continued to expand into the early 2000s, about the time the Federal Reserve Board began to cut interest rates drastically to fend off a recession. The combination of loose credit requirements and cheap money spurred a housing boom, which drove speculation, which in turn drove up housing prices.

In the meantime, the investment banks, looking for easy profits in the wake of the dotcom bust and 2001 recession, created collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) out of mortgages purchased on the secondary market. Because subprime mortgages were bundled with prime mortgages, there was no way for investors to understand the risks associated with the product. Around the time when the market for CDOs was heating up, the housing bubble that had been building up for several years was beginning to burst. As housing prices fell, subprime borrowers began to default on loans that were worth more than their homes, accelerating the decline in prices.

When investors realized the CDOs were becoming worthless due to the toxic debt they represented, they tried to unload them, but there was no market for them. This caused a cascade of subprime lender failures, which created a liquidity contagion that worked its way to the upper tiers of the banking system. Two major investment banks, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, collapsed under the weight of their exposure to the subprime debt, and more than 450 banks failed over the next five years. Several of the major banks were on the brink of failure had it not been for a taxpayer-funded bailout.

台灣地區早餐店5年倒閉近1千家 

連鎖早餐店是台灣民眾從小吃到大的美食回憶，歌手盧廣仲還將每天「吃早餐」唱成流行歌。不過，根據統計，連鎖早餐專賣店五年內大減1129家，傳統連鎖早餐店似乎不再那麼受歡迎了。

「台灣的早餐市場還是很大」，連鎖早餐店業者認為，主要是近年年輕人喜歡走自己的路，比較不喜歡加盟，而是自行創業、做特色早餐，而且市場競爭激烈，連鎖早餐店才會愈來愈難做。

連鎖餐館大幅成長 早餐專賣店卻大衰減

雖然連鎖餐館在品牌數、店數上都有大幅度成長，但其中的「速食店」總店數卻在五年內減少了九百廿七家。

「速食店」分為西式速食、日韓速食、中式速食與早餐專賣。西式速食與日韓速食店數近年都有成長，中式速食近五年內減少了194家店，但早餐專賣店的衰減才是主因。

根據台灣連鎖暨加盟協會統計，101年早餐專賣店數共有1萬1523家，去年則略減到1萬394家。五年內大幅減少了1129家，減少幅度約9.8%。品牌數微幅增加了13家。

台灣連鎖暨加盟協會表示，早餐專賣主要是指台灣西式連鎖早餐店，非永和豆漿等中式早餐店。值得注意的是，上一個五年（2008年至2011年），連鎖早餐店數也減少約六百多家，這次減少幅度又更擴大。

早餐市場商機兩千億 競爭激烈

事實上，現在連鎖早餐業者還是主打「搶食每年兩千億早餐商機」，來吸引加盟主。業者認為，早餐是三餐中外食比例最高的一餐，以台灣2300萬人口，扣除老人與嬰兒人口約1700萬人，有八成民眾外食早餐。以平均單價45元的早餐計算，每年早餐市場創下兩千億商機。

經濟部統計處官員分析，可能是因為部分品牌早餐店的同質性太高，另外一個原因就是近年民眾愈來愈偏愛「早午餐」形式，因此傳統連鎖早餐店也面臨競爭。

業者還表示，便利商店的早餐組合一直在打價格戰，再加上現沖咖啡，對上班族很有吸引力。麥當勞、肯德基等西式速食的早餐選擇也越來越多，也來搶佔市場一杯羹。

沖咖啡、供輕食 早餐店開始轉型

現在民眾對於「早餐」的想法，也跟以前不太一樣了。現在人喜歡吃特色早餐，例如前陣子很紅的碳烤吐司、法國吐司、蛋餅夾包子等特色料理，一般的連鎖早餐店反而因為普及率較高，吸引力意外較低。

你的人生是在挑水還是在挖井呢？

(值得品味的深度故事)

 Written by Dr. Chao Yuang Shiang (趙永祥 博士)

位於廣東省中山市郊區的高級溫泉社區內，有幾位上班族拿著手機正進入一間長方形玻璃貨櫃屋，本刊記者好奇想要進入，卻發現店門口被鎖住；身旁的中國朋友拿著綁定微信的手機在門口一掃QR Code，門馬上開啟，裡面放著餅乾、糖果、泡麵等生活用品，還有一個冷飲櫃。

只見店內沒有店員，大家拿著三瓶飲料放在櫃台用手機掃描一下，就直接把商品帶出去，他們笑說，這就是現在中國最夯話題的「繽果盒子」無人商店！

五坪大的繽果盒子，裡面販售500樣商品，相當於一家迷你便利店，業者宣稱只需要一個補貨員，營運成本只有便利店的15%，硬體投資也只25%，投資約10個月就可回本，營運以來10個月，已接待過上萬名顧客，且回購率達八成，準備在未來一年內開出5000個據點。

場景回到台灣，位於台北市康定路的一間「O2O無人便利商店」，用沒有綁定身分的悠遊卡就可以開門，這是一家二層樓商店，放置六部可調整溫層的自動販賣機，裡面販售飲料、零食、泡麵與生鮮蔬菜包，可以直接投幣或用悠遊卡支付。

經營O2O無人便利商店的環球好運國際公司總經理朱靜願說，智慧型自動販賣機可以販賣5度到60度的商品，系統都會即時傳出庫存訊息給管理者，讓店長可知道哪些商品賣得好，也知道哪些商品該補貨，一家店只需一位補貨店員就能營運，每月平均可省下約6萬元薪資成本；自動販賣機還搭載大型LED螢幕，除了推播即時促銷活動，也會顯示網路商城，讓消費者用手機掃QR Code後上網訂購，再直接送貨到家。

近來無人店話題引發市場熱議，但嚴格來說，無人店並不是新概念，在日本集結多部自動販賣機的無人商店，早已行之有年。

商研院經營模式創新研究所副所長李世珍認為，這次能掀起全球跟風，關鍵在於世界重量級電商巨獸─美國亞馬遜（Amazon）推出全新的Amazon Go無人商店，「拿了就走」的購物流程，能解決消費者最困擾的等待結帳問題，全新模式為市場投下震撼彈，「有些是傳統實體零售業者想破頭也想不出來的，畢竟這兩個領域專長差別很大。」

http://www.wealth.com.tw/article_in.aspx?nid=11761

從本質來看，創造財富是企業的首要目標，但不是企業的終極目標，如何分配這些財富決定了企業發展境界的高低，而發展境界的高低決定了企業發展績效。廣東商人有一句口頭禪：“賺十萬是自己的；賺一百萬是家庭的；賺一千萬是社會的。”只有將創造的財富“取之社會、用之社會”，才會促進企業的持久繁榮。管理學裡也強調實踐的重要，否則理論再好，生產力不能提高，員工不能工作愉快，則理論談得再多都是假的、也無法產生效用。

Written by Dr. Chao Yuang Shiang (趙永祥 博士)

Faculty in Dep. of Finance, Nan Hua university

(南華大學財務金融學系暨財務管理研究所 專任助理教授)

22-July-2017

星雲大師說法-58《僧事百講》因緣果報

    星雲大師講經說法

《我們需要另類的財富》【全集】1~2

星雲大師講經說法：慧学 

~ 談因果報應