你可能很懂理財,也可能一竅不通。以下的10個理財觀念,對任何人都可適用,掌握這些原則與方法,幫你作出正確的理財抉擇。
1. 看財經局勢,做趨勢計畫
2.不要只為了賺錢而投資
3.用情緒理財是最失敗的策略
趙夫子
2014/02/21
Emerging Markets have suffered in recent years due to low commodities prices and slower global demand. With signs that emerging markets were on the comeback trail in 2017, many analysts earlier this year believed that 2018 would be much brighter for Emerging Markets, however, there are signs that tailwinds are fading.
The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook that this year and next, "growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off.”
Our economists believe that there is a growing divergence between developed and developing economies. Among developing nations with economies with relatively solid fundamentals and driven by commodity exports—especially oil—growth is accelerating this year going into next. However, higher yields in the United States, the rise in energy prices and large exposure to foreign debt are putting pressure on some oil-importing countries and those with persistent macroeconomic imbalances. This mostly results in heightened volatility in their financial and equity markets, as well as sizeable currency depreciations. Let’s take a closer look at what’s expected for some of these countries in the coming year:
Click image to enlarge
China
Global and domestic headwinds are expected to impact growth in H2 and beyond. The brewing full-blown trade war between China and the United States is the main downside risk to the country’s economic outlook. Domestic threats, however, including a cooling property market and financial deleveraging, are also building. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy will grow 6.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the economy is seen expanding 6.3%.
India
A normalization in cash conditions following the demonetization of late 2016 and the fading of disruptions from last year’s launch of the Goods and Services Tax should facilitate the economic recovery in FY 2018. Nonetheless, risks of fiscal slippage in the run-up to elections next year, concerns over the banking sector in India, increasing global trade tensions and higher oil prices all cloud prospects. Our panel expects GDP growth of 7.3% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 7.5% in FY 2019.
Russia
Growth in Russia is expected to pick up this year, thanks to strengthening private consumption and firmer oil prices. An improving labor market and low inflation should buoy household spending, while higher commodity prices will support export growth. That said, high geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility of further economic sanctions remain key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is seen steady at 1.7%.
Brazil
Brazil’s growth forecast was chopped for a third consecutive month as the truckers’ strike, a less supportive global backdrop and higher oil prices dent the country’s outlook. FocusEconomics panelists now see the Brazilian economy growing 1.7% this year, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. A market-friendly outcome to October’s election remains critical to ensuring a sustainable recovery; however, this is far from certain. Next year, GDP is seen growing 2.5%.
Mexico
Household spending and exports are expected to drive growth this year in Mexico. Tight job markets—both domestically and stateside—and improved private-sector lending should support private consumption, while healthy factory output in the U.S. should bolster manufacturing exports. Uncertainty over NAFTA continues to weigh heavily on investment prospects, although the odds of reaching a deal have improved in recent weeks. On politics, most analysts currently expect AMLO to govern as a centrist. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, panelists see growth stable at 2.2%.
Argentina
Despite a healthy first quarter, the pace of growth is expected to slow sharply this year. The loss of agricultural output following the severe drought; extremely high interest rates and currency volatility, which will weigh on investment decisions; and consumer spending constrained by low confidence and rapid inflation are seen driving this deceleration. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast foresee the economy expanding 0.4% in 2018, down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, growth is expected to reach 1.9%.
Turkey
Economic growth in Turkey will likely weaken in the coming quarters, on tighter financial conditions, shaky investor sentiment and a higher oil import bill. Exchange rate volatility, geopolitical tensions, a gaping current account deficit and elevated inflation pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.2% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. They see growth of 3.5% in 2019.
Romania
Higher inflation and a loss in consumer confidence should lead to a marked slowdown in consumer spending this year, denting GDP growth in Romania. Although the expansion in fixed investment should gain some strength, low EU funds absorption will limit the extent of the acceleration. Downside risks stem from widening fiscal and current account deficits. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.1% for 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2019.
Egypt
The Egyptian economy is expected to grow at a solid pace in FY 2019. This is due to higher investment on the back of increased government spending and an improved regulatory environment. Moreover, the external sector should continue to benefit from the weaker pound. However, large fiscal imbalances and the higher price of oil will weigh on prospects. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.1% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.9% in FY 2020.
South Africa
Greater political stability and firm credit ratings bode well for the South African economy in 2018 as full-year economic prospects look set to largely ride out the weak first quarter. Real wage gains should support stronger household spending this year, while the government’s push to attract investment should bolster capital outlays. Nevertheless, fiscal slippage and a slow reform agenda are likely to constrain growth over the medium term. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.6% in 2018, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2019.
Nigeria
Higher oil prices, improved liquidity and increased public spending in the run-up to the 2019 elections should fuel faster growth this year in Nigeria. However, political uncertainty, as well as security concerns, continues to pose risks to economic activity. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to increase 2.4% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last year’s projection. Next year, growth is seen rising to 2.9%.
Further reading:
富人與窮人的時間觀
窮人為錢工作,富人讓錢為他們工作;
窮人管理金錢,富人卻善於管理時間;
富人時間不夠用,窮人不知如何殺時間。
時間在窮人手上變得一文不值,在富人手裡卻變得價值連城,
因此,窮人將會更窮,而富人也將更富。
為什麼每個人擁有的時間都一樣,但成就卻大不相同呢?你通常是花錢買時間還是賣時間賺錢?有人開車繞了半小時只為了找一個免費車位,有人花錢找人辦事讓自己可以做別的更重要的事。當時間不再只是度量衡而是有行有市可以買賣,你的時間值多少錢,你願意用多少錢買別人的時間,未來會有交易所,請先標好你的定價。
會管理時間就會管理金錢也會管理自己的人生,讓人生更精彩的關鍵就在於同樣的時間內透過規劃、分工可以做更多的事情,讓家庭、事業、婚姻、健康都能兼顧。
千萬不要讓遲到、懶惰,這些小事浪費在您寶貴時間上。
十個理財重要觀念
你可能很懂理財,也可能一竅不通。以下的10個理財觀念,對任何人都可適用,掌握這些原則與方法,幫你作出正確的理財抉擇。
1. 看財經局勢,做趨勢計畫