你可能很懂理財,也可能一竅不通。以下的10個理財觀念,對任何人都可適用,掌握這些原則與方法,幫你作出正確的理財抉擇。
1. 看財經局勢,做趨勢計畫
2.不要只為了賺錢而投資
3.用情緒理財是最失敗的策略
趙夫子
2014/02/21
Based on a comprehensive study of decades of market history, JPMorgan has developed a detailed guide for how investors can ride out the next recession, Business Insider reports. With the so-called Great Recession of 2007–09 now a decade behind us, and the onset of the next economic
downturn becoming increasingly imminent, JPMorgan recommends that investors start planning
on defensive portfolio shifts. However, the firm believes that a recession is unlikely to begin with
in the next 12 months, and warns that making big defensive shifts more than a year ahead of a recession can be costly. Nonetheless, John Normand, JPMorgan's head of cross-asset fundamental strategy, says, "But given the possibility of an earlier turn based on concerns about valuation or liquidity, there is some wisdom in averaging out of these exposures
progressively each quarter even during a robust expansion."
(For more, see also: 7 Ways to Invest in a Bear Market.)
Underweight equities vs. bonds |
Underweight cyclical stocks vs. defensive stocks |
Overweight value and quality stocks vs. growth and momentum stocks |
Underweight emerging market vs. developed market stocks |
Source: Business Insider
A key matter of concern for Normand is high valuations, with both trailing P/E and forward P/E ratios above their levels during the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. As a result, any hint of an impending economic downturn could send share prices tumbling, and the likelihood of a liquidity crunch could exacerbate the fall. He indicates that, once these fears start to arise, bonds could
start outperforming stocks more than a year before an actual recession begins, ahead of the usual schedule dictated by history.
4 Areas to Avoid Big Losses
Equities |
Bonds |
Commodities |
Currencies |
Source: Business Insider
Normand warns that corporate debt is at record levels in the U.S. and some emerging markets,
while the quality of so-called high grade (or investment grade) corporate debt is at record lows
in the U.S. and Europe. He advises that investors go underweight in both high grade and high yield corporate bonds, shifting their debt holdings toward government bonds instead. He also suggests going underweight in European debt and overweight in cash.
Investors should be overweight in gold, but neutral or underweight in oil and base metals.
While OPEC normally cuts production late in the business cycle to boost prices, JPMorgan expects that they will do the opposite in 2019, to help the oil market recover from its crash in 2014.
Rising output in the U.S. is contributing to a glut, and thus oil may become a short selling opportunity in the second half of 2019.
(For more, see also: Why Stocks Are in a Hidden Bear Market.)
In light of their forecast of declining oil prices, JPMorgan believes that demand for other commodities will weaken. As a result, they suggest shorting the currencies of emerging
market countries that are heavily dependent on exports of commodities, starting in the first half
of 2019. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen tends to strengthen during periods of market turbulence,
with a historic success rate of 50%, so investors also should go long on the yen at the same time.
David Tice, the longtime manager of the Prudent Bear Fund before selling it to Federated
Investors in 2008, is among a growing chorus of investment professionals who are becoming increasingly nervous about the market and the economy. "We're getting closer to a meltdown scenario," he told CNBC, adding, "I'm worried about whether the economy could enter a recession
faster than a lot of people think." He's particularly concerned that stock markets and currencies
in emerging markets have been tumbling, which may be a prelude to a U.S. downturn.
Contrary to most predictions, he foresees a global trend towards deflation, rather than inflation.
富人與窮人的時間觀
窮人為錢工作,富人讓錢為他們工作;
窮人管理金錢,富人卻善於管理時間;
富人時間不夠用,窮人不知如何殺時間。
時間在窮人手上變得一文不值,在富人手裡卻變得價值連城,
因此,窮人將會更窮,而富人也將更富。
為什麼每個人擁有的時間都一樣,但成就卻大不相同呢?你通常是花錢買時間還是賣時間賺錢?有人開車繞了半小時只為了找一個免費車位,有人花錢找人辦事讓自己可以做別的更重要的事。當時間不再只是度量衡而是有行有市可以買賣,你的時間值多少錢,你願意用多少錢買別人的時間,未來會有交易所,請先標好你的定價。
會管理時間就會管理金錢也會管理自己的人生,讓人生更精彩的關鍵就在於同樣的時間內透過規劃、分工可以做更多的事情,讓家庭、事業、婚姻、健康都能兼顧。
千萬不要讓遲到、懶惰,這些小事浪費在您寶貴時間上。
十個理財重要觀念
你可能很懂理財,也可能一竅不通。以下的10個理財觀念,對任何人都可適用,掌握這些原則與方法,幫你作出正確的理財抉擇。
1. 看財經局勢,做趨勢計畫