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Economic forecasts for China
by 趙永祥 2018-11-13 00:22:22, 回應(0), 人氣(889)
Economic forecasts for China
This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.
Overview | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP Growth Rate | 1.60 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | percent |
Unemployment Rate | 3.82 | 4 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4 | percent |
Inflation Rate | 2.50 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | percent |
Interest Rate | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | percent |
Balance of Trade | 340.16 | 560 | 150 | 210 | 190 | 350 | USD HML |
Government Debt to GDP | 47.60 | 48.2 | 48.7 | 48.7 | 48.7 | 50.2 | percent |
MARKETS | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Currency | 6.96 | 6.92 | 6.95 | 6.98 | 7.01 | 7.14 | ||
Stock Market | 2630.52 points | 2783 | 2745 | 2708 | 2671 | 2529 | ||
Government Bond 10Y | 3.50 percent | 3.68 | 3.72 | 3.75 | 3.79 | 3.94 | ||
GDP | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
GDP Growth Rate | 1.60 percent | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | ||
GDP Annual Growth Rate | 6.50 percent | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | ||
GDP | 12237.70 USD Billion | 12700 | 13200 | 13200 | 13200 | 13900 | ||
Gross National Product | 824828.40 CNY HML | 879267 | 878442 | 878442 | 877617 | 988871 | ||
Gross Fixed Capital Formation | 346440.80 CNY HML | 369306 | 368959 | 368959 | 368613 | 415341 | ||
GDP per capita | 7329.09 USD | 7400 | 7950 | 7950 | 7950 | 8330 | ||
GDP per capita PPP | 15308.71 USD | 16100 | 16800 | 16800 | 16800 | 18450 | ||
GDP From Agriculture | 42173.00 CNY HML | 69788 | 9483 | 23523 | 44872 | 78488 | ||
GDP From Construction | 41590.00 CNY HML | 59364 | 10206 | 26805 | 44252 | 66764 | ||
GDP From Manufacturing | 222165.00 CNY HML | 298477 | 72545 | 154059 | 236384 | 335683 | ||
GDP From Services | 345773.00 CNY HML | 455216 | 119736 | 242368 | 367902 | 511960 | ||
GDP From Transport | 29556.00 CNY HML | 39232 | 9437 | 20280 | 31448 | 44122 | ||
GDP Constant Prices | 650899.00 CNY HML | 881712 | 211704 | 446194 | 692557 | 991621 | ||
LABOUR | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Unemployment Rate | 3.82 percent | 4 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4 | ||
Employed Persons | 77640.00 Tens of Thousands | 77690 | 77740 | 77740 | 77688 | 77820 | ||
Unemployed Persons | 968.00 Tens of Thousands | 968 | 968 | 968 | 969 | 969 | ||
Labour Costs | 104.80 Index Points | 102 | 105 | 105 | 105 | 103 | ||
Wages | 74318.00 CNY/Year | 79500 | 84100 | 84100 | 84100 | 88300 | ||
Wages in Manufacturing | 64452.00 CNY/Year | 69600 | 74500 | 74500 | 74500 | 79500 | ||
Minimum Wages | 2420.00 CNY/Month | 2420 | 2540 | 2540 | 2540 | 2630 | ||
Population | 1390.08 Million | 1398 | 1407 | 1407 | 1404 | 1415 | ||
Retirement Age Women | 50.00 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | ||
Retirement Age Men | 60.00 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | ||
PRICES | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Inflation Rate | 2.50 percent | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | ||
Inflation Rate Mom | 0.20 percent | 0.3 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.2 | ||
Consumer Price Index CPI | 102.50 Index Points | 104 | 105 | 104 | 105 | 110 | ||
Core Consumer Prices | 101.80 Index Points | 104 | 104 | 104 | 103 | 108 | ||
Core Inflation Rate | 1.80 percent | 2.2 | 1.66 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.8 | ||
GDP Deflator | 656.41 Index Points | 628 | 679 | 682 | 685 | 640 | ||
Producer Prices | 103.30 Index Points | 109 | 107 | 109 | 108 | 119 | ||
Producer Prices Change | 3.30 percent | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4 | 5.5 | ||
Export Prices | 101.00 Index Points | 101 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 101 | ||
Import Prices | 106.90 Index Points | 109 | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 | ||
Food Inflation | 3.30 percent | 1.7 | 2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2 | ||
MONEY | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Interest Rate | 4.35 percent | 4.35 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | ||
Cash Reserve Ratio | 14.50 percent | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14 | 14 | 13 | ||
Interbank Rate | 3.12 percent | 3.13 | 3.28 | 3.28 | 3.28 | 4.28 | ||
Money Supply M0 | 7130.00 CNY Billion | 7032 | 7029 | 7014 | 6999 | 6866 | ||
Money Supply M1 | 53860.00 CNY Billion | 54662 | 55324 | 55965 | 56585 | 61316 | ||
Money Supply M2 | 180170.00 CNY Billion | 183630 | 187140 | 190651 | 194154 | 225231 | ||
Central Bank Balance Sheet | 366229.75 CNY HML | 368656 | 371487 | 374282 | 376986 | 397486 | ||
Banks Balance Sheet | 1380.00 CNY Billion | 1350 | 1290 | 1291 | 1291 | 1291 | ||
Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3053098.00 USD Million | 3024192 | 2987118 | 2960166 | 2937795 | 2840000 | ||
Loans to Private Sector | 22100.00 CNY HML | 16178 | 15287 | 15692 | 15821 | 15820 | ||
Deposit Interest Rate | 0.35 percent | 0.35 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||
Loan Growth | 13.20 percent | 13 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 11.7 | ||
Loans To Banks | 1327637.38 CNY HML | 1366212 | 1405232 | 1444055 | 1482827 | 1828251 | ||
Reverse Repo Rate | 2.55 percent | 2.6 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 3.5 | ||
Fixed Asset Investment | 5.40 percent | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.44 | 6.2 | ||
TRADE | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Balance of Trade | 340.16 USD HML | 560 | 150 | 210 | 190 | 350 | ||
Exports | 2172.83 USD HML | 2100 | 1950 | 1960 | 2010 | 2130 | ||
Imports | 1832.67 USD HML | 1840 | 1800 | 1750 | 1820 | 2000 | ||
Current Account | 160.00 USD HML | 330 | -138 | 72.22 | 118 | 67.52 | ||
Current Account to GDP | 1.30 percent | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1 | ||
External Debt | 17106.00 USD HML | 17800 | 18500 | 18500 | 16581 | 19000 | ||
Terms of Trade | 94.48 Index Points | 91.75 | 91.56 | 91.49 | 91.4 | 91.38 | ||
Foreign Direct Investment | 917.70 USD HML | 1300 | 747 | 1000 | 681 | 1500 | ||
Capital Flows | -160.00 USD HML | 510 | 275 | 77.75 | 12.96 | 620 | ||
Tourist Arrivals | 2917.00 Tens of Thousands | 2961 | 3050 | 3050 | 2978 | 3100 | ||
Gold Reserves | 1842.60 Tonnes | 1843 | 1843 | 1843 | 1843 | 1843 | ||
Crude Oil Production | 3732.00 BBL/D/1K | 3662 | 3765 | 3765 | 3765 | 3576 | ||
Terrorism Index | 5.54 | 5.54 | 5.54 | 5.54 | 5.54 | 5.54 | ||
Weapons Sales | 1131.00 USD Million | 1872 | 1840 | 1809 | 1777 | 1735 | ||
GOVERNMENT | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Government Debt to GDP | 47.60 percent | 48.2 | 48.7 | 48.7 | 48.7 | 50.2 | ||
Government Budget | -3.50 percent of GDP | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -3.4 | ||
Government Budget Value | -357.10 CNY HML | -359 | -273 | -60 | -537 | -496 | ||
Government Spending | 203330.00 CNY HML | 216750 | 216546 | 216546 | 216343 | 243769 | ||
Government Revenues | 12963.00 CNY HML | 11500 | 15000 | 18600 | 15116 | 13000 | ||
Fiscal Expenditure | 22616.00 CNY HML | 25000 | 22500 | 28800 | 18624 | 26800 | ||
Military Expenditure | 228173.00 USD Million | 256000 | 280000 | 280000 | 244916 | 300000 | ||
BUSINESS | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Business Confidence | 50.20 Index Points | 51.4 | 51.6 | 52 | 51.3 | 51 | ||
Manufacturing PMI | 50.10 | 51.2 | 51.6 | 50.9 | 50.8 | 50.1 | ||
Non Manufacturing PMI | 53.90 percent | 54.6 | 53 | 52.6 | 54.2 | 52 | ||
Services PMI | 50.80 Index Points | 52.2 | 52.3 | 53 | 52.38 | 52 | ||
Industrial Production | 5.80 percent | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6 | 6.5 | 5.2 | ||
Industrial Production Mom | 0.50 percent | 0.3 | 0.49 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | ||
Manufacturing Production | 5.70 percent | 6 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | ||
New Orders | 50.80 Index Points | 51.15 | 51.24 | 51.19 | 51.19 | 51.19 | ||
Changes in Inventories | 14186.00 CNY HML | 13495 | 13353 | 13212 | 13070 | 14565 | ||
Total Vehicle Sales | 2380100.00 | 2430592 | 2329318 | 2334136 | 2345062 | 2342291 | ||
Car Production | 2002200.00 Units | 2044078 | 1972771 | 1975625 | 1981941 | 1980111 | ||
Car Registrations | 2046800.00 | 2103257 | 1983887 | 1984064 | 2005411 | 2000438 | ||
Internet Speed | 7583.32 KBps | 10629 | 11021 | 11404 | 11778 | 14747 | ||
IP Addresses | 98862937.00 IP | 72038908 | 68739509 | 65559121 | 62493452 | 39428876 | ||
Mining Production | 2.20 percent | 1.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 1.86 | 1.2 | ||
Steel Production | 80845.00 Thousand Tonnes | 81269 | 81036 | 80950 | 80990 | 81001 | ||
Capacity Utilization | 76.50 percent | 77 | 77.3 | 77.4 | 77.5 | 77.5 | ||
Competitiveness Index | 72.61 Points | 73.11 | 73.11 | 73.11 | 73.11 | 75.61 | ||
Competitiveness Rank | 28.00 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | ||
Composite Pmi | 50.50 | 52.3 | 51.4 | 52.4 | 52.2 | 52.4 | ||
Cement Production | 20781.00 Ten Thousands of Tonnes | 19981 | 19977 | 20099 | 20045 | 20055 | ||
Corporate Profits | 4917340.00 CNY Million | 7700000 | 1720000 | 3800000 | 4102204 | 8250000 | ||
Ease of Doing Business | 46.00 | 79 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 77 | ||
Electricity Production | 640500.00 Gigawatt-hour | 594409 | 588557 | 589466 | 589375 | 589346 | ||
Corruption Index | 41.00 Points | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | ||
Corruption Rank | 77.00 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | ||
CONSUMER | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Consumer Confidence | 118.50 Index Points | 117 | 116 | 115 | 114 | 105 | ||
Retail Sales MoM | 0.80 percent | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | ||
Retail Sales YoY | 9.20 percent | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 8 | ||
Consumer Spending | 317509.70 CNY HML | 338465 | 338148 | 338148 | 337830 | 380656 | ||
Disposable Personal Income | 36396.00 CNY | 39103 | 39709 | 40315 | 40921 | 45968 | ||
Personal Savings | 0.35 percent | 0.35 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | ||
Bank Lending Rate | 4.35 percent | 4.35 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | ||
Consumer Credit | 356536.29 CNY HML | 373351 | 389534 | 405011 | 419768 | 519138 | ||
Gasoline Prices | 0.92 USD/Liter | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.58 | ||
Households Debt To GDP | 49.30 percent of GDP | 49.6 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 55 | ||
HOUSING | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Housing Index | 7.90 percent | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8 | 7.8 | 6 | ||
Home Ownership Rate | 90.00 percent | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | ||
TAXES | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Corporate Tax Rate | 25.00 percent | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | ||
Personal Income Tax Rate | 45.00 percent | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | ||
Sales Tax Rate | 17.00 percent | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | ||
Social Security Rate | 48.00 percent | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | ||
Social Security Rate For Companies | 37.00 percent | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | ||
Social Security Rate For Employees | 11.00 percent | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | ||
CLIMATE | Actual | Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | 2020 | ||
Temperature | -5.24 celsius | 0.1 | -4.26 | 17.58 | 10.66 | 6.78 | ||
Precipitation | 17.59 mm | 20.21 | 17.24 | 47.56 | 46.91 | 48.95 |