This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.


OverviewActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
GDP Growth Rate1.601.31.31.41.61.1percent
Unemployment Rate3.82444.24.24percent
Inflation Rate2.502.32.42.52.42.6percent
Interest Rate4.354.354.54.54.55.5percent
Balance of Trade340.16560150210190350USD HML
Government Debt to GDP47.6048.248.748.748.750.2percent
MARKETSActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Currency6.96
6.926.956.987.017.14
Stock Market2630.52
points
27832745270826712529
Government Bond 10Y3.50
percent
3.683.723.753.793.94
GDPActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
GDP Growth Rate1.60
percent
1.31.31.41.61.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate6.50
percent
6.66.56.56.45.8
GDP12237.70
USD Billion
1270013200132001320013900
Gross National Product824828.40
CNY HML
879267878442878442877617988871
Gross Fixed Capital Formation346440.80
CNY HML
369306368959368959368613415341
GDP per capita7329.09
USD
74007950795079508330
GDP per capita PPP15308.71
USD
1610016800168001680018450
GDP From Agriculture42173.00
CNY HML
697889483235234487278488
GDP From Construction41590.00
CNY HML
5936410206268054425266764
GDP From Manufacturing222165.00
CNY HML
29847772545154059236384335683
GDP From Services345773.00
CNY HML
455216119736242368367902511960
GDP From Transport29556.00
CNY HML
392329437202803144844122
GDP Constant Prices650899.00
CNY HML
881712211704446194692557991621
LABOURActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Unemployment Rate3.82
percent
444.24.24
Employed Persons77640.00
Tens of Thousands
7769077740777407768877820
Unemployed Persons968.00
Tens of Thousands
968968968969969
Labour Costs104.80
Index Points
102105105105103
Wages74318.00
CNY/Year
7950084100841008410088300
Wages in Manufacturing64452.00
CNY/Year
6960074500745007450079500
Minimum Wages2420.00
CNY/Month
24202540254025402630
Population1390.08
Million
13981407140714041415
Retirement Age Women50.00
5050505050
Retirement Age Men60.00
6060606060
PRICESActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Inflation Rate2.50
percent
2.32.42.52.42.6
Inflation Rate Mom0.20
percent
0.30.210.180.190.2
Consumer Price Index CPI102.50
Index Points
104105104105110
Core Consumer Prices101.80
Index Points
104104104103108
Core Inflation Rate1.80
percent
2.21.661.651.651.8
GDP Deflator656.41
Index Points
628679682685640
Producer Prices103.30
Index Points
109107109108119
Producer Prices Change3.30
percent
3.53.94.245.5
Export Prices101.00
Index Points
101101101101101
Import Prices106.90
Index Points
109110110110110
Food Inflation3.30
percent
1.722.22.22
MONEYActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Interest Rate4.35
percent
4.354.54.54.55.5
Cash Reserve Ratio14.50
percent
14.514.5141413
Interbank Rate3.12
percent
3.133.283.283.284.28
Money Supply M07130.00
CNY Billion
70327029701469996866
Money Supply M153860.00
CNY Billion
5466255324559655658561316
Money Supply M2180170.00
CNY Billion
183630187140190651194154225231
Central Bank Balance Sheet366229.75
CNY HML
368656371487374282376986397486
Banks Balance Sheet1380.00
CNY Billion
13501290129112911291
Foreign Exchange Reserves3053098.00
USD Million
30241922987118296016629377952840000
Loans to Private Sector22100.00
CNY HML
1617815287156921582115820
Deposit Interest Rate0.35
percent
0.350.50.50.51.5
Loan Growth13.20
percent
1312.512.413.111.7
Loans To Banks1327637.38
CNY HML
13662121405232144405514828271828251
Reverse Repo Rate2.55
percent
2.62.652.652.653.5
Fixed Asset Investment5.40
percent
6.46.46.55.446.2
TRADEActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Balance of Trade340.16
USD HML
560150210190350
Exports2172.83
USD HML
21001950196020102130
Imports1832.67
USD HML
18401800175018202000
Current Account160.00
USD HML
330-13872.2211867.52
Current Account to GDP1.30
percent
10.80.80.81
External Debt17106.00
USD HML
1780018500185001658119000
Terms of Trade94.48
Index Points
91.7591.5691.4991.491.38
Foreign Direct Investment917.70
USD HML
130074710006811500
Capital Flows-160.00
USD HML
51027577.7512.96620
Tourist Arrivals2917.00
Tens of Thousands
29613050305029783100
Gold Reserves1842.60
Tonnes
18431843184318431843
Crude Oil Production3732.00
BBL/D/1K
36623765376537653576
Terrorism Index5.54
5.545.545.545.545.54
Weapons Sales1131.00
USD Million
18721840180917771735
GOVERNMENTActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Government Debt to GDP47.60
percent
48.248.748.748.750.2
Government Budget-3.50
percent of GDP
-4.2-3.8-3.8-3.8-3.4
Government Budget Value-357.10
CNY HML
-359-273-60-537-496
Government Spending203330.00
CNY HML
216750216546216546216343243769
Government Revenues12963.00
CNY HML
1150015000186001511613000
Fiscal Expenditure22616.00
CNY HML
2500022500288001862426800
Military Expenditure228173.00
USD Million
256000280000280000244916300000
BUSINESSActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Business Confidence50.20
Index Points
51.451.65251.351
Manufacturing PMI50.10
51.251.650.950.850.1
Non Manufacturing PMI53.90
percent
54.65352.654.252
Services PMI50.80
Index Points
52.252.35352.3852
Industrial Production5.80
percent
6.26.266.55.2
Industrial Production Mom0.50
percent
0.30.490.10.20.3
Manufacturing Production5.70
percent
66.16.25.95.5
New Orders50.80
Index Points
51.1551.2451.1951.1951.19
Changes in Inventories14186.00
CNY HML
1349513353132121307014565
Total Vehicle Sales2380100.00
24305922329318233413623450622342291
Car Production2002200.00
Units
20440781972771197562519819411980111
Car Registrations2046800.00
21032571983887198406420054112000438
Internet Speed7583.32
KBps
1062911021114041177814747
IP Addresses98862937.00
IP
7203890868739509655591216249345239428876
Mining Production2.20
percent
1.5-0.5-0.41.861.2
Steel Production80845.00
Thousand Tonnes
8126981036809508099081001
Capacity Utilization76.50
percent
7777.377.477.577.5
Competitiveness Index72.61
Points
73.1173.1173.1173.1175.61
Competitiveness Rank28.00
2828282828
Composite Pmi50.50
52.351.452.452.252.4
Cement Production20781.00
Ten Thousands of Tonnes
1998119977200992004520055
Corporate Profits4917340.00
CNY Million
77000001720000380000041022048250000
Ease of Doing Business46.00
7978787877
Electricity Production640500.00
Gigawatt-hour
594409588557589466589375589346
Corruption Index41.00
Points
4141414141
Corruption Rank77.00
7777777777
CONSUMERActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Consumer Confidence118.50
Index Points
117116115114105
Retail Sales MoM0.80
percent
0.50.70.40.20.5
Retail Sales YoY9.20
percent
8.48.58.17.78
Consumer Spending317509.70
CNY HML
338465338148338148337830380656
Disposable Personal Income36396.00
CNY
3910339709403154092145968
Personal Savings0.35
percent
0.350.30.30.31.1
Bank Lending Rate4.35
percent
4.354.54.54.55.5
Consumer Credit356536.29
CNY HML
373351389534405011419768519138
Gasoline Prices0.92
USD/Liter
0.820.770.730.680.58
Households Debt To GDP49.30
percent of GDP
49.650515155
HOUSINGActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Housing Index7.90
percent
8.28.587.86
Home Ownership Rate90.00
percent
9090909090
TAXESActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Corporate Tax Rate25.00
percent
2525252525
Personal Income Tax Rate45.00
percent
4545454545
Sales Tax Rate17.00
percent
1717171717
Social Security Rate48.00
percent
4848484848
Social Security Rate For Companies37.00
percent
3737373737
Social Security Rate For Employees11.00
percent
1111111111
CLIMATEActualQ4/18Q1/19Q2/19Q3/192020
Temperature-5.24
celsius
0.1-4.2617.5810.666.78
Precipitation17.59
mm
20.2117.2447.5646.9148.95



China - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook