Global commodity prices decline in November, 2018

Global commodity prices resumed their downward trend in November after rising in October for the first time in five months. Global prices fell 2.8% in November, contrasting October’s 1.9% increase.

November’s drop masked uneven developments across commodity sectors. Energy prices tanked due to markedly lower oil prices, although natural gas prices surged. Base metals also followed energy prices lower on a broad-based price decline across most commodities, while precious metals edged up on a continued rise in palladium prices. Agricultural prices rose somewhat in November, largely due to higher prices for corn, soybeans and wheat.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists surveyed this month expect global commodity prices to increase 5.6% in Q4 2019 from the same period in 2018 (previous edition: +3.1% year-on-year), thanks to higher prices for base metals, precious metals and agricultural commodities. The same commodity groups are likely to continue boosting global commodity prices further ahead, with FocusEconomics panelists expecting commodity prices to rise 2.5% in annual terms from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020.