你可能很懂理財,也可能一竅不通。以下的10個理財觀念,對任何人都可適用,掌握這些原則與方法,幫你作出正確的理財抉擇。
1. 看財經局勢,做趨勢計畫
2.不要只為了賺錢而投資
3.用情緒理財是最失敗的策略
趙夫子
2014/02/21
I know the U.S. dollar isn't as sexy as Tesla, Inc.'s (TSLA) Elon Musk tweeting market-moving information every few hours or Apple Inc. (AAPL) hitting a trillion-dollar market cap, but I have been waiting all summer for a resolution of this range in the Dollar Index, and it looks like we might be finally getting it. Whether this move is successful and the dollar continues higher, or it's a failed breakout that sends the euro ripping, there will be significant cross-asset implications that are worth thinking about as this move develops.
First, let's start off with a daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index. In late April, prices broke above the downtrend line from its March 2017 peak and rallied toward its October highs, where prices stalled. For the past two months, prices have consolidated within an ascending triangle of higher lows and many failed attempts to clear the October highs. This gave momentum plenty of time to work off its bearish divergence and for the 200-day moving average to flatten out and begin rising ever so slightly. All of these characteristics are what you'd expect to see during a consolidation period that ultimately resolves higher, but now price is finally confirming it. (For more, see: The Pros and Cons of a Strong Dollar.)
From a quantitative sentiment perspective, there's some excess optimism in the options market, but not nearly as much as we saw at the 2014 or 2016 highs, and commercial hedger positioning, while short, is not at an extreme either. From a qualitative perspective, I've not read or spoken to many people with the view that the euro is going higher from current levels, so that's an interesting tidbit.
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Nonetheless, let's look at the Dollar Index's largest component, the euro. Below is a daily chart of EUR/USD that is very much a mirror image of the Dollar Index. Prices broke down from their highs in late April, quickly falling toward former support/resistance, and they have been consolidating in a descending triangle of lower highs and unsuccessful breaks of 1.1540. Momentum remains in a bearish range, and the 200-day moving average has flattened and is beginning to roll over. Now prices are finally confirming what these characteristics were suggesting, a continuation lower, by closing at one-year lows.
From a quantitative sentiment perspective, neither options positioning nor commercial hedger positioning are near extremes, suggesting that there is more room to go to the downside in the euro. (See also: Forex Currencies: The EUR/USD.)
Regardless of the outcome, this move is going to have a lot of important implications for commodities (specifically metals), global equity markets (especially those owned through exchange-traded funds with local currency exposure) and other assets around the world.
While sentiment isn't necessarily stretched to extremes in the U.S. dollar and the euro themselves, we are starting to see some multi-year extremes in options and commercial hedger positioning in precious metals. A confirmed failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence in something like gold or platinum that has been beaten up all year could ignite a counter-trend rally that is exacerbated by the negative sentiment.
I know it's a summer Friday, so I won't make this an extremely long post talking about all the relationships and possible outcomes, but my point is that I'm watching the Dollar Index to see if it can close this week strong and will certainly be thinking about how it's going to affect trends in other markets as I do my homework this weekend. I know many of you will be too.
I'm curious to see what you all are thinking, so let us know by voting in JC's poll on Twitter or dropping us a note using our contact page.
As always, thanks for reading!
富人與窮人的時間觀
窮人為錢工作,富人讓錢為他們工作;
窮人管理金錢,富人卻善於管理時間;
富人時間不夠用,窮人不知如何殺時間。
時間在窮人手上變得一文不值,在富人手裡卻變得價值連城,
因此,窮人將會更窮,而富人也將更富。
為什麼每個人擁有的時間都一樣,但成就卻大不相同呢?你通常是花錢買時間還是賣時間賺錢?有人開車繞了半小時只為了找一個免費車位,有人花錢找人辦事讓自己可以做別的更重要的事。當時間不再只是度量衡而是有行有市可以買賣,你的時間值多少錢,你願意用多少錢買別人的時間,未來會有交易所,請先標好你的定價。
會管理時間就會管理金錢也會管理自己的人生,讓人生更精彩的關鍵就在於同樣的時間內透過規劃、分工可以做更多的事情,讓家庭、事業、婚姻、健康都能兼顧。
千萬不要讓遲到、懶惰,這些小事浪費在您寶貴時間上。
十個理財重要觀念
你可能很懂理財,也可能一竅不通。以下的10個理財觀念,對任何人都可適用,掌握這些原則與方法,幫你作出正確的理財抉擇。
1. 看財經局勢,做趨勢計畫