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by 趙永祥 2017-07-30 05:36:11, 回應(0), 人氣(43)


5 economic myths that stand in the way of a more equal world


Many of the economic development ideas the West believed to be long-held truths and major Western contributions to modernity no longer seem so accurate. From the unorthodox rise of China and the increasing economic heft of the developing world, through Brexit and the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, to the continued futile search for market-driven solutions to tackle climate change, the tenets of neoliberalism and “the Washington Consensus” no longer seem like good predictors of where the world is going, or pathways to a safer and more equitable world.

The developing world, which has long unthinkingly followed the lead of the West, needs to take the lead in challenging these ideas and devising new approaches.

Many of the economic development ideas the West believed to be long-held truths no longer seem like good predictors of where the world is going.

They are past their sell-by date, and preserving them is the cause of many of the major challenges of the 21st century. They distract us from making the political and economic shifts needed to survive in a crowded, hot, techno-charged and resource-constrained future.

If fresh ideas are to emerge, these five neoliberal myths need to die.

Myth 1: Free market-driven development is the best mechanism to build vibrant economies, using the private sector to encourage growth and more opportunities for all, including the poor.

Whether this comes in the form of deregulation for business, tax cuts for the rich or slashed and privatized public services to limit “dependency,” these policies are the centerpiece of the neoliberal “Washington Consensus,” promoted the world over by Western institutions and development experts. They form the core of the trickle-down economics school of thought.

But the results from this widespread adoption have not all been positive. Growing global inequalities are a stark reminder that the gravy is too thick to “trickle down.” This has fueled social unrest and the global rise of populism, which has caught the imagination of the international media by upturning politics in the West.

Cut government services have entrenched deep poverty amongst the very poor, who lose access to basic needs. Deregulation has led to less security for labor, great consumer risks, significant environmental damage and exhausted resources. Nor do governments give enforcement and monitoring agencies enough resources to do their jobs (leading to tragedies like the London apartment fire) — or, worse, are co-opted by business-friendly interests (as evidenced by politicians and urban regulators actively enabling the likes of Uber and Airbnbwhilst being aware that their operations break existing laws) — meaning that regulations may not be worth the paper they’re written on.

Growing global inequalities are a stark reminder that the gravy is too thick to ‘trickle down.’

There is ample evidence that the so-called Washington Consensus is harmful: countries that aggressively deregulated and liberalized their financial sectors were later hit by major financial crises, as happened in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in the United States in 2008. We also know that countries which pursue austerity politics and deregulation in the aftermath of economic crisis tend to do worse than countries that use direct government spending and intervention: compare the post-2008 performance of China (which launched a massive stimulus) and, to a lesser extent, the United States (which pursued a more limited stimulus and government intervention albeit to save its “too big to fail” banking and automotive sectors) with the sluggish performance of Europe (which largely slashed government spending).

Many successful countries have bucked the prescriptions of the Washington Consensus. Even small ones like Malaysia challenged the International Monetary Fund free-market prescriptions during the Asian financial crisis and imposed capital controls that were successful. China, with its more state-driven development strategy and management of markets, has achieved economic success far faster and far more broadly than any other developing countries, although significant economic and environmental challenges remain. Singapore, despite being portrayed as a utopia by conservative economists, supports its public services through forced savings and government management of socially important sectors of the economy, such as health care and housing.

On the other hand, Hong Kong’s adherence to free-market principles with regard to land and housing has created an untenable situation in which it is near impossible for ordinary people to buy or rent an affordable home.

Then you have the Nordic states, which have smartly invested the revenue from their stocks of natural capital into high-quality and universal public services, creating a higher average standard of living than their more free-market Western counterparts.

Myth 2: Countries should sustain their development through foreign direct investment.

The unquestioned assumption is that this investment would rapidly improve productivity in these emerging markets, leading to high growth, more jobs, increasing wages and a growing manufacturing sector with all the trickle-down benefits.

However, the concept of foreign direct investment, or FDI, is fickle and predatory by nature. The reality is that developing countries can end up becoming dependent on this type of investment, and foreign investors can put pressure on and extract outrageous concessions from government and local administrations to ensure they remain. The controversial inclusion of investor-state dispute settlement courts, whereby multinational companies can sue governments often of poorer and weaker nations if their businesses are affected, in multilateral trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership is one such example of foreign governments and companies pushing through self-serving regulatory change. Often these dependent countries accept them as it is the only way to survive in an FDI-focused world.

FDI is also not targeted at sectors of the economy that foster long-term economic development or meet the needs of the majority, take low-cost housing, sewerage and infrastructure, for example. Foreign investment often concentrates on specific products not meant for the wider population, and also can push countries to focus on extractive primary resources that increase inequality and environmental damage, dangerous manufacturing with low safety standards, or a premature move to a service-based economy which, as the economist Dani Rodrik notes, can have significant economic and political consequences.

It is not perhaps surprising to note that when developing countries were depending on Western FDI, there was often little concern expressed about these countries becoming too dependent on a powerful economic player. Yet, when Western investment is replaced with Chinese investment, as has happened in some regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa, there is sudden concern that China is practicing “neocolonialism.” And when Chinese FDI targets key assets in the West, such as the attempts by Huawei, a Chinese telecommunication firm, to enter the United States, it is seen as a “national security threat.”

The argument is not that FDI is innately bad in all circumstances, but rather that it should be seen as a means to the intended end, rather than as an end in itself.

For a long time, Western-led FDI has in effect been a threat to the natural economies of many developing nations, given the non-level playing field written into contracts. But beggars could not be choosers. The argument is not that FDI is innately bad in all circumstances, but rather that it should be seen as a means ― and only one means, at that ― to the intended end, rather than as an end in itself.

In China, the government did use FDI as it opened to the outside world, but it used it to quickly get experience with foreign practices and technology. China then understandably used that knowledge for its own factories and companies helping to give it a globally competitive manufacturing sector. By virtue of its size, Beijing was thus able to wed its FDI to an industrial policy with an objective, and not be at the mercy of foreign investors.

Such a policy was often accompanied by accusations of infringing copyrights and patents: both China and India still remain on the United States’ “watchlist” for countries not protecting intellectual property. China has recently been accused of “stealing” tech from clean energy companies, while India is routinely pressured to implement American-style drug patents and clamp down on affordable generics.

Patents, copyrights and other intellectual property protections have become legal tools that seek to lock in a market advantage and try to prevent others ― usually less developed countries ― from progressing with their own innovations on the back of existing global advances. It is a form of using FDI to keep recipients dependent on foreign capital and technology, especially as countries like America start putting more and more things, from business practices to design choices, under the umbrella of protected intellectual property.

Myth 3: Large-scale urbanization is necessary and an inevitable step for developing countries seeking to modernize through industrialization, manufacturing and sustained productivity growth.

This myth argues that migrants from underproductive rural communities would enhance economic productivity by being employed in the urban manufacturing and service sectors. This conveniently ignores the policies and decisions that deliberately help make rural life untenable and unproductive. Throughout the developing world, there has been massive overinvestment in urban areas aimed at fostering economic growth, along with a corresponding massive underinvestment in rural areas. Chinese policy in the 90s, for example, often favored cities over the countryside, which widened the ratio between urban and rural incomes later on in the early 2000s. While government programs over the past decade have narrowed the gap slightly, it remains true that urban employment opportunities and social services such as education are better in cities than in the countryside.

There is also the continued failure to pass land reform in many countries, which concentrates land in a few rich landholders. This leads to situations like India, where studies show that 5 percent of India’s farmers control about one-third of the country’s farmland. In many developing countries, critical rural investment to enhance economic activity, such as irrigationtransport and health care, have lagged far behind what has been invested in cities. These policies depopulate the countryside, and lead it to be put to work by large agribusiness and primary resource companies, as most of the economy and jobs are increasingly centered in a few major cities.

In reality, this massive wave of migrants is stretching developing cities to their breaking point. Roads are congested, with traffic jams lasting for hours. There is not enough housing, leading to rapidly growing slums and dangerous, cramped and illegal apartments. Those living in insecure housing have poor access to electricity, clean water, sanitation and waste disposal. What is obvious is that the basic infrastructure to house tens of millions in crowded cities in the developing world is simply unaffordable. We need to stop pretending that these monster cities will magically get richer and fix these challenges.

Our warming climate hurts these cities even more. Combine the effects of global warming and the urban heat island effect, and tropical cities are ending up being around three degrees higher than their surroundings. They are becoming unlivable. Urban dwellers who can afford it are being forced to shelter inside climate-controlled homes ― which will consume more electricity and emit even more heat ― while the majority swelters in an uncontrolled, unbearable environment, with noise and sleep deprivation having a serious impact on the productivity and health of citizens.

The lesson is not that urbanization is bad on the whole, but rather that it should be managed more carefully, with interventions and brakes as necessary.

Uncontrolled urbanization also hurts rural communities. The lack of economic opportunities hollows out the countryside, as the best and brightest leave for better jobs in the city. This leaves behind the old, the young and the unskilled, leading to stagnation and decline. This can result in entrenched poverty for those who remain, with worse social, health and educational outcomes. The region may become more desperate for investment of any kind, leading to riskier and more environmentally damaging economic activity, such as extractive farming, unsafe manufacturing or polluting resource extraction. If urbanization becomes too centralized in a few cities, small towns and secondary cities are underinvested in and can suffer the same fate as rural areas.

This has led to political resentment against the city ― much of the rise of populism around the world can be seen in this light. Nor is this solely apparent in advanced economies, where urbanization is largely irreversible. Thailand’s politics have been rocked by Bangkok’s urban elite trying to preserve their political and economic privileges against a rural population that largely feels it has been ignored yet toils on the land to feed the urban masses.

The lesson is not that urbanization is bad on the whole, but rather that it should be managed more carefully, with interventions and brakes as necessary. Developing countries should pursue a managed urbanization ― one that spreads economic activity across multiple cities and a network of secondary towns (up to 1 million people) ― that does not corrode the countryside and that keeps rural areas economically viable.

Myth 4: The best way to understand productivity so as to grow economies is to measure it as how quickly and how cheaply we can produce something.

High “productivity” — the ability to produce a lot of goods cheaply, efficiently and quickly to promote relentless consumption — has led to a vast increase in the amount we can produce and consume and has improved, in theory, average living standards around the world.

However, this narrow definition of productivity misses the huge external costs to the environment and the effects on the poor majority in the developing world, and it does not reflect the realities of our time. It might have been an appropriate measure around 100 years ago when the world had over 1.5 billion people and natural resources were abundant. But we live in a very different world today, one with 7.5 billion people and one in which abundance has been replaced by scarcity. If these external costs were instead paid by businesses, many of the world’s major industries could no longer make a profit.

An illustrative example is a comparison between industrial farming and organic farming. The former, by relying on chemical fertilizer, economies of scale and mechanization, has driven its business costs down far enough to undercut other farmers on price. This has made small-scale farming uneconomical in many parts of the world. However, industrial farming has a high external cost and results in the scourge of over-consumption and food wastage (which, if it were a country, would be the third largest emitter of carbon emissions). It has transformed diets and eating habits: industrial corn and soya bean farming in the United States is the classic example of this, which led to the world being flooded with junk snacks. Organic farming, on the other hand, relies on intense labor and natural inputs to achieve smaller yields than industrial farming, with higher business costs yet lower external costs.

If we are to understand how our economy actually consumes resources, we need a more honest assessment of how ‘productive’ it actually is.

Our narrow view of productivity would deem industrial farming more productive than organic farming, due to its ability to produce more food for less. However, industrial farming has significant social and environmental repercussions. Fertilizer runoff can pollute water sources, endangering sources of drinking water and encouraging the growth of harmful algae blooms. The monocultures grown by industrial farms — necessary to achieve scale — lead to soil exhaustion, requiring agribusinesses to use even more fertilizer to replenish the soil. The mechanization and automation of some farming tasks lowers employment in the area, which in turn has economic effects on the wider community. Finally, large industrial farms need more and more land to lower costs even further, pushing smallholder farmers off their property (sometimes illegally). If any of these costs were tabulated and included, the industrial farm would no longer seem as “productive” as the smaller and slower, yet cleaner and employment-generating, organic farm.

This is true of the entire economy. The only reason some industries and sectors appear productive is that they make other people pay some of the costs, selectively removing them from their business models. It is the same with carbon emissions, whose effect is only now more widely understood. If we are to understand how our economy actually consumes resources, we need a more honest assessment of how “productive” it actually is.

We need to challenge the continuous drive for productivity increases in developing country factories by replacing people with automation. This is another example of an inappropriate definition of productivity resulting in social consequences that governments need to take action about. Why would a large country like India, with so many still seeking work, look to displace labor with mechanization, just for the sake of lowering the cost of production? Even some technology business leaders are starting to worry about the social repercussions of automation and digitization. Bill Gates, for example, has called for a tax on robots.

Myth 5: We can fight climate change through the free market and technological innovation instead of actual hard limits on carbon emissions and consumption.

The argument is that market forces will encourage sustainability: as resources become scarcer, they will increase in price, encouraging energy- and resource-efficiency, lowered emissions and, thus, lowered resource use. Market-driven approaches would, in theory, allow everyone to preserve their high living standards while protecting the Earth.

While we can understand why those working against action on climate change would subscribe to these views, even supporters of action on climate change are unwilling to speak plainly. They justify action on climate change by referring to “green jobs” or “the renewable economy,” and criticized the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement as much on lost economic opportunities than any social or environmental damage.

This turns climate change action into an economic cost-benefit analysis. It would deem action on climate change a failure if it shaves, say, 1 percent off of economic growth even though from an environmental and social stability standpoint, that is a small price to pay for a sustainable planet.

The only way to reduce carbon emissions is not to consume and produce more efficiently, but to actually consume and produce less.

The only way to reduce carbon emissions is not to consume and produce more efficiently, but to actually consume and produce less. Neither the free market nor a faith in technological development will encourage the restraint we need. Companies will also not be a vehicle to a more sustainable lifestyle, as their businesses are predicated upon people consuming more, not less.

These myths all serve to sustain an economic model that does not distribute wealth creation equitably and is at the same time at war with the planet. Yet the developing world is rushing to embrace them, often faster and on a bigger scale than even the developed world.

The effects of these neoliberal myths have already caused a great deal of harm, but it would catastrophic if they are embraced by the world’s largest economies ― all of which, with the exception of the United States, are in the developing world. If this happens, the world will continue to see an escalation of social unrest and will face a bleak future as it continues to pursue a resource-intense economic model. It’s time for these myths to die, and for the developing world to create bold new ideas that better fit its circumstances.


The website linkage

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/if-we-want-a-more-equal-world-we-need-to-dispel-these-5-economic-myths?utm_content=buffere8ffb&utm_medium=social&utm_source=plus.google.com&utm_campaign=buffer

by 趙永祥 2016-12-26 21:24:31, 回應(0), 人氣(97)


China: Tightening measures in top cities cool house prices in November

House prices in 70 large- and medium-sized cities rose 0.6% in November from the previous month, according to a weighted average index calculated by Thomson Reuters from data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The print was below the 1.1% increase observed in the previous month and marked a nine-month low. 

Compared to the same month last year, house prices jumped 12.6% in November. The print came in above the 12.3% increase recorded in October and marked the fastest expansion on record. Annual average variation in house prices rose from 6.2% in October to a 28-month high of 7.2% in November.

The implementation of home purchase restrictions and higher mortgage down payments by the end of September and early October in some top-tier cities is causing house prices to decelerate.


China Housing Chart


China House Prices November 2016


Note: Month-on-month changes of the price index of newly constructed residential buildings in 70 large and medium cities and year-on-year variation in %. The index is calculated as a weighted average based on the population of the 70 cities.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and Thomson Reuters

by 趙永祥 2016-12-26 21:17:14, 回應(0), 人氣(110)


China Investment Data in Q3,2016

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China - Investment Data

Growth maintains strength in Q3

Despite tentative signs that the fading of policy support could hurt growth, the Chinese economy showed its strength again in Q3 and expanded at a steady rate of 6.7% for the third consecutive quarter. The print was in line with market expectations and puts the economy on track to comfortably attain this year’s 6.5%-7.0% growth target. Post-flood reconstruction works, a burgeoning real estate market and solid gains in private consumption likely shored up growth in Q3.

Although the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) does not provide a breakdown of GDP by expenditure, additional data suggest that growth in private consumption improved in Q3 as retail sales accelerated to a 10.5% increase in that period (Q2: +10.2% year-on-year). Conversely, investment growth continued to decelerate. Investment among state-owned and state-holding units remained strong in Q3, though it decelerated on waning policy support. Private investment remained weak in the same period, highlighting the fragility of China’s quality of growth as the main drivers remain traditional government-led sectors. Improving financing conditions for private firms and implementing more market-friendly initiatives are key to rebalancing investment towards a healthier trajectory. As a result, urban fixed-asset investment—which covers infrastructure and factory construction—expanded 8.2% in the first nine months of the year, which was below the accumulated 9.0% rise.On the external side of the economy, weak global demand continued to drag on nominal merchandise exports despite the weakening of the yuan. Overseas shipments declined 6.2% in Q3 (Q2: -5.0% yoy). The stabilization in commodities prices, coupled with improving Chinese demand, prompted imports to contract a softer 4.6% annually in Q3 (Q2: -6.9% yoy). A steeper drop in exports combined with a softer decline in imports may have contributed negatively to the external sector.

Sequential data show that GDP in Q3 adjusted for seasonal factors increased 1.8%, slightly down from the 1.9% expansion registered in Q2. Moreover, overall nominal GDP grew 7.8% in Q3, which was above the 7.3% increase in Q2.

As growth is no longer a major concern, the focus has now shifted to China’s booming housing market and soaring private debt. The increase in housing prices comes after years of relaxing conditions to revamp China’s property market. Some cities have recently started to unveil measures in order to cool soaring prices, including increasing down payments and restricting home purchases, particularly in top cities. While the economic spillovers are still unclear, city-specific measures could be an effective instrument to slowly burst the property bubble. As Tao Wang, Head of China Economic Research at UBS, states:“Policy makers have so far avoided applying a blanket nationwide property tightening program, likely for fear of overdoing policy cooling to trigger a sudden property sentiment reversal or sharp sales deceleration. As such, property policy tightening remains differentiated; targeting areas where the sales/price/leverage rally has been most concentrated. […] On balance, we think these measures will have a moderate cooling effect in the coming months.”

An accommodative monetary policy stance and government-fueled growth via cheap credit prompted private sector debt, which includes household and corporate borrowing, to skyrocket from around 115% of GDP in 2008 to 210% of GDP in Q1 this year. The State Council unveiled a raft of measures on 10 October to cut private-sector leverage, including swapping bad debt for equity and facilitating the bankruptcy of zombie firms. However, analysts are skeptical about the plan as it does not address structural problems, such as how to prevent companies from incurring bad debt again in the future.

The Chinese government set a growth target of between 6.5% and 7.0% for 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 6.6% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel sees economic growth coming in lower at 6.3%, which is also unchanged from last month’s estimate.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-investment-data-q32016-yuang-shiang-chao?published=t

Dr. Chao Yuang Shiang

by 趙永祥 2016-12-08 20:46:16, 回應(0), 人氣(68)

China: Investment growth hits four-month high in October

In the first ten months of the year through to October, urban fixed-asset investment (FAI), excluding rural households, expanded 8.3% from the same period last year, which was above the 8.2% expansion in September. The reading was slightly above the 8.2% increase that markets had expected and represented a four-month high. A month-on-month comparison shows that investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.58% in October, which was slightly above the 0.52% increase in September.

The improvement observed in October reflected an acceleration in the primary and the tertiary sectors. Conversely, growth in the secondary sector decelerated in the same month. The closely-watched real estate development indicator gained steam in October and hit a five-month high. In response to the tightening measures implemented in some top cities at the start of October, developers have sped up their investment projects. However, property investment growth will likely weaken in the coming months.

Analyzing October’s data from the ownership side, investment growth among state-owned and state-holding units moderated to an eight-month low, although it still expanded a strong 20.5%. Activity among private companies accelerated in October and expanded a mild 2.5%. This combination of stronger private sector activity and a moderation among public-related companies bodes well for China’s economic transition. That said, the wide gap between the two sectors is still casting doubt on the quality of this economic rebalancing.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect fixed-asset investment to grow 8.8% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2017, the panel sees fixed-asset investment growth at 8.5%, which is also down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/china/news/investment/investment-growth-hits-four-month-high-in-october

by 趙永祥 2016-12-08 20:39:54, 回應(2), 人氣(304)

China - Investment Data

Growth maintains strength in Q3

Despite tentative signs that the fading of policy support could hurt growth, the Chinese economy showed its strength again in Q3 and expanded at a steady rate of 6.7% for the third consecutive quarter. The print was in line with market expectations and puts the economy on track to comfortably attain this year’s 6.5%-7.0% growth target. Post-flood reconstruction works, a burgeoning real estate market and solid gains in private consumption likely shored up growth in Q3.

Although the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) does not provide a breakdown of GDP by expenditure, additional data suggest that growth in private consumption improved in Q3 as retail sales accelerated to a 10.5% increase in that period (Q2: +10.2% year-on-year). Conversely, investment growth continued to decelerate. Investment among state-owned and state-holding units remained strong in Q3, though it decelerated on waning policy support. Private investment remained weak in the same period, highlighting the fragility of China’s quality of growth as the main drivers remain traditional government-led sectors. Improving financing conditions for private firms and implementing more market-friendly initiatives are key to rebalancing investment towards a healthier trajectory. As a result, urban fixed-asset investment—which covers infrastructure and factory construction—expanded 8.2% in the first nine months of the year, which was below the accumulated 9.0% rise in H1.

On the external side of the economy, weak global demand continued to drag on nominal merchandise exports despite the weakening of the yuan. Overseas shipments declined 6.2% in Q3 (Q2: -5.0% yoy). The stabilization in commodities prices, coupled with improving Chinese demand, prompted imports to contract a softer 4.6% annually in Q3 (Q2: -6.9% yoy). A steeper drop in exports combined with a softer decline in imports may have contributed negatively to the external sector.

Sequential data show that GDP in Q3 adjusted for seasonal factors increased 1.8%, slightly down from the 1.9% expansion registered in Q2. Moreover, overall nominal GDP grew 7.8% in Q3, which was above the 7.3% increase in Q2.

As growth is no longer a major concern, the focus has now shifted to China’s booming housing market and soaring private debt. The increase in housing prices comes after years of relaxing conditions to revamp China’s property market. Some cities have recently started to unveil measures in order to cool soaring prices, including increasing down payments and restricting home purchases, particularly in top cities. While the economic spillovers are still unclear, city-specific measures could be an effective instrument to slowly burst the property bubble. As Tao Wang, Head of China Economic Research at UBS, states:

“Policy makers have so far avoided applying a blanket nationwide property tightening program, likely for fear of overdoing policy cooling to trigger a sudden property sentiment reversal or sharp sales deceleration. As such, property policy tightening remains differentiated; targeting areas where the sales/price/leverage rally has been most concentrated. […] On balance, we think these measures will have a moderate cooling effect in the coming months.”

An accommodative monetary policy stance and government-fueled growth via cheap credit prompted private sector debt, which includes household and corporate borrowing, to skyrocket from around 115% of GDP in 2008 to 210% of GDP in Q1 this year. The State Council unveiled a raft of measures on 10 October to cut private-sector leverage, including swapping bad debt for equity and facilitating the bankruptcy of zombie firms. However, analysts are skeptical about the plan as it does not address structural problems, such as how to prevent companies from incurring bad debt again in the future.


The Chinese government set a growth target of between 6.5% and 7.0% for 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 6.6% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel sees economic growth coming in lower at 6.3%, which is also unchanged from last month’s estimate.

China - Investment Data

2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  
Investment (annual variation in %)24.0  20.6  19.6  15.7  10.0  
by 趙永祥 2016-12-08 20:37:11, 回應(0), 人氣(74)

China Economic Outlook(November 15, 2016)

November 15, 2016

Q3’s healthy growth momentum has carried into the final quarter of the year as private consumption remains strong and investment appears to be recovering somewhat. Robust dynamics in the real estate market, which shored up economic activity in Q3, are expected to slow in Q4 as a result of the recent measures adopted by some local governments to cool their soaring property markets. Still, the economy is comfortably on track to achieve the government’s annual growth target of between 6.5% and 7.0%. In its Q3 monetary policy report, the People’s Bank of China highlighted that striking a balance between cutting asset bubbles and stabilizing growth will be the key challenge in the near future.

China Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)1,3471,3541,3611,3681,375
GDP per capita (USD)5,5756,2607,0377,5697,808
GDP (USD bn)7,5118,4769,57610,35210,736
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.57.87.77.36.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.09.17.37.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)24.020.619.615.710.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)13.910.09.78.36.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)17.114.313.112.010.7
Unemployment Rate4.14.14.14.14.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.1-1.6-1.9-1.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.914.514.815.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)13.613.813.612.213.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.12.52.51.51.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.42.62.62.01.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)6.0-1.7-1.9-1.9-5.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.566.006.005.604.35
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-21.73.2-6.752.99.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.296.236.056.216.49
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.466.316.156.166.28
Current Account (% of GDP)1.82.51.52.73.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)136215148277331
Trade Balance (USD billion)154231258383602
Exports (USD billion)1,8982,0492,2092,3422,283
Imports (USD billion)1,7441,8191,9521,9591,681
Exports (annual variation in %)20.28.07.86.0-2.5
Imports (annual variation in %)25.04.37.30.4-14.2
International Reserves (USD)3,1813,3123,8213,8433,330
External Debt (% of GDP)9.38.79.08.613.2
by 趙永祥 2016-12-08 20:29:45, 回應(0), 人氣(90)


Taiwan Economic Outlook

November 15, 2016

The economy continues to show resilience as the year draws to an end. Preliminary Q3 data showed a further strengthening of the economy largely driven by domestic demand. Exports of goods and services also rebounded notably, though net exports were a drag on overall economic growth as imports accelerated more rapidly than exports. Continued improvements in manufacturing and exports should ensure positive momentum in the final quarter of the year as exports improved again in October and the manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in more than two years.

Taiwan Economy Data

http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/taiwan
by 趙永祥 2016-12-08 20:27:49, 回應(0), 人氣(58)


Taiwan Economic Growth (8-December-2016)

November 15, 2016

The recovery of the Taiwanese economy has gained momentum in the second half of the year as strong global demand for electronic products has spilled over into the country’s industrial and external sectors. Our analysts expect the economy to expand 1.1% this year, before accelerating to 1.7% in 2017. The 2017 growth outlook, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, mainly reflects a further strengthening of external demand and the manufacturing sector.

Taiwan Economic News

  • Taiwan: Manufacturing PMI rises to 27-month high in November

    December 1, 2016

    Manufacturing activity in Taiwan registered a sixth consecutive month of improving conditions, on the back of stronger production, improving new orders and a solid increase in delivery times.

    Read more

  • Taiwan: Economy expands at fastest pace in one and a half years in Q3

    November 25, 2016

    A more complete set of data showed that GDP increased 2.0% annually in Q3, which was revised slightly down from a flash estimate of 2.1% growth released by the Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) on 31 October.

    Read more

  • Taiwan: Industrial production decelerates in October

    November 23, 2016

    Industrial production increased 3.7% in October from the same month last year, moderating from the revised 4.6% expansion recorded in September (previously reported: +5.0% year-on-year). Manufacturing production—which contributes 93% to overall industrial output—expanded 5.7% annually in October (September: +6.0% yoy).

    Read more

  • Taiwan: Exports rebound but trade surplus narrows in October

    November 7, 2016

    In October, the trade surplus totaled USD 4.4 billion, according to data from the Ministry of Finance (MOF).

    Read more

  • Taiwan: Inflation jumps in October due to bad weather conditions

    November 1, 2016

    In October, consumer prices jumped 1.45% over the previous month, coming above the 0.46% increase recorded in September.

  • Taiwan - Inflation (end of period)

    Inflation jumps in October due to bad weather conditions

    In October, consumer prices jumped 1.45% over the previous month, coming above the 0.46% increase recorded in September. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS) commented that typhoons and heavy rains prompted prices for fresh food, particularly fruit and vegetables, to increase substantially over the previous month. In addition, the end of the government’s subsidy to summer electricity fares prompted electricity prices to jump in October. 

    Inflation jumped to 1.7% in October, increasing from the 0.3% recorded in September and marking the highest reading since April. Meanwhile, annual average inflation inched up from 1.0% in September to 1.1% in October.

    Core consumer prices, which exclude prices for electricity and fresh food, rose 0.5% over the previous month in October, which was up from the 0.1% increase in September. Core inflation remained stable at September’s 1.0% in October.

    The government foresees inflation of 1.1% in 2016. Focus Economics Consensus Forecast panelists also expect inflation of 1.2% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees inflation inching up to 1.2%, which is also unchanged from last month’s forecast.

    Taiwan - Inflation (eop) Data

    2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  
    Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.0  1.6  0.3  0.6  0.1  
  • http://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/taiwan/inflation-eop



by 趙永祥 2016-12-04 19:38:17, 回應(0), 人氣(121)


China Economic Development and Investment Risks


China Economic Development and Investment Risks

CHINA Economic growth is being supported by stimulus, but is set to edge down further to 6.1% by 2018. At the same time, risks are rising. The economy is undergoing transitions on several fronts. Private investment will be reinvigorated by the removal of entry restrictions in some service industries, but held back by adjustment in several heavy industries. Housing prices are again rising fast in the bigger cities, but working off housing inventories in smaller cities will take time. Consumption growth is set to hold up, especially as incomes rise and urbanisation continues. Reductions in excess capacity will ease downward pressure on producer prices but consumer price inflation will remain low. Import demand for goods will be damped by on-shoring, while services imports, in particular tourism, will grow rapidly. Exports will be held back by weak global demand and loss of competitiveness. Fiscal policy, including via the policy banks, is very expansionary. Monetary policy prudence is called for so as not to aggravate imbalances. Removing implicit public guarantees and ending bailouts would make for better and more market-based pricing of risk. Corporate debt has risen substantially to high levels and the enterprise sector therefore needs to deleverage. Supply-side reforms to cut excess capacity need to accelerate and bankruptcy of zombie firms be made easier. Leveraged investment in asset markets should be contained and monitored. Public investment should focus on efficiency and avoid crowding out the private sector. New revenue sources, such as property taxation or a more progressive personal income tax, can be used to meet increasing spending needs for public services and social security. Fiscal relations across government levels should be revamped so that local mandates are adequately funded.

Risks are mounting apparently nowadays

Policy stimulus will help keep growth above 6% over 2016-18. However, investment is increasingly financed by public funds. Opening up additional sectors to private investment will provide new opportunities for private capital. Current growth rates of disposable income will support consumption growth, but without structural reforms to reduce precautionary savings such as the provision of a better social safety net and higher-quality public services, rebalancing will advance only slowly. The slow pace of reform of state-owned enterprises and high leverage will continue to take up resources, preventing reallocation for more efficient use. Soaring property prices in first-tier cities and leveraged investment in asset markets magnify the risk of disorderly defaults.

Excessive leverage and mounting debt in the corporate sector compound financial stability problems. Rapid adjustment in the real estate and industrial sectors would drag down growth temporarily, but is necessary to strengthen resilience. Supply-side policies, including deleveraging and working off excess capacity, are crucial to avoid a sharp slowdown down the road. Greater-than-expected stimulus, in contrast, would result in stronger growth in the short term but larger imbalances later. On the upside, a stronger-than-foreseen global rebound would support Chinese exports and growth.

Written by Dr. Chao Yuang Shiang (趙永祥 博士)
Faculty in Dep. of Finance, Nan Hua university
December-2016
by 趙永祥 2016-12-04 19:33:39, 回應(0), 人氣(113)



Risk Assessment and Essential Steps on Doing Business in China

Risk Assessment and Essential Steps on Doing Business in China

I. To Understand the Risk and Reward First

The investment rewards in China will undoubtedly be huge, but to make the most of them, any intelligent investor should have a clear understanding of the risks involved. A detailed analysis of the China risk is well beyond the scope of this article, but understanding the basic layout provides a solid foundation. Also understand that risks should not deter investment - the U.S. was quite risky in 1900. Instead, risk should be understood so it can be properly accounted for.

China is still a communist country. So despite all the free market principles that China has faithfully adopted, as a communist nation the rules that govern a public company in China are different than here in the U.S. Chinese stocks trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Both of these exchanges have similar listing requirements that you would see in U.S. stock exchanges. Companies have to report timely financial statements, have audits performed and meet other requirements of size and capitalization. Beyond that, the accounting rules differ, and that is where things can get murky.To be sure, attempts are being made to bring Chinese accounting standards more in line with U.S. 

II. Six Essential steps on assessment the risk managements

Strategic thought on assessment the risk managements are stated as follows.

Six Essential steps

  • To understand the local laws and regulations, and follow up on changes.
  • To respect local cultures and find trustworthy advisers with good local wisdom.
  • To enhance the corporate governance; trust local management, but with appropriate guidance and monitoring from headquarters.
  • To emphasize a transparent control environment with smooth information flows.
  • To introduce enterprise risk management mechanisms that will build lines of defence into the organisation.
  • To plan ahead when moving money into or out of China.


The following statements are important for decision makers and should be taken into consideration on investment risk assessment on doing business in China.

III. Eight important considerations on investment risk assessment

1. Government control

An increasing number of strict regulations exist over the way business can be done in China. While all competitors are subject to the same laws and regulations, the enforcement of those compliance regulations may be different for many local competitors. In certain designated industries, for example, multinational companies are required to co-operate with local joint venture partners, which are generally selected by the Chinese government, and governmental orders may be redirected towards local competitors in the future.

2. Inconsistent interpretation of rules and regulations

The Chinese government has issued a number of laws and regulations relating to taxes, such as corporate income tax law and transfer pricing. However, certain detailed implementation guidelines for these laws and regulations are still not pronounced, even though the respective laws and regulations may have taken effect. In addition, local authorities retain the right to interpret existing laws and regulations, resulting in a lack of consistency between individual provinces and jurisdictions.

3. Concerns about intellectual property

China’s intellectual property laws would need to be updated in order for them to be in line with the intellectual property laws in many mature economies. In order to take action under the Chinese intellectual property laws, local registration of intellectual property in China is required. However, registration frequently requires provision of significant information about the intellectual property to the Chinese authorities.

4. Increased local competition

The Chinese government strongly promotes the evolution of strong local competitors in its key industries. The quality of products delivered by local competitors is rapidly increasing, requiring reaction in terms of innovation at the higher end of the market, as well as cost savings at the lower end of the market.

5. Lack of controls

Historically, businesses in China are not familiar with key concepts of internal control over financial reporting, since the finance function has not been seen as a key function in an organisation. Risks tend to be addressed on a reactive, not proactive, basis. If risks are being managed, a silo approach is often used.

6. Recruitment issues

There is a lack of skilled and well-trained employees, particularly in the areas of engineering and finance. Retention rates are low and some salaries (eg, engineering, finance) have witnessed double-digit growth and in certain areas are at the same levels as in mature markets. Due to governments trying to control housing prices via ‘hu-kou’ (residence registration), talent management will be more challenging in coming years. (For more on this issue, read Grant Thornton’s article: What’s your employment strategy for hiring in China?)

7. Little supply chain management

Effective supply chain management tools are missing in most companies in China due to a reliance on existing relationships. Corruption, bribery and fraud are issues, and raw material prices have surged over the past few years.

8. Opaque practices

Intertwined relationships are a common occurrence. Business perks are maximised, and in certain industries there are commission payments to agents and other third parties. Dealing with local joint venture partners can be tricky for multinational corporations. Nick Farr, of Grant Thornton UK’s China Britain Services Group, adds two extra financial risk management considerations for businesses investing in China or repatriating profits back to the UK.

IV. Conclusion

China with high uncertainty and high potential for profits, scenarios could provide avenues to analyze interrelated, macro-environmental, industrial, and corporate level sources of business risk. In China, managers have to assign subjective probabilities to several key variables in risk analysis.

The lure of enormous markets and profits in China comes entangled with various sources of risks and uncertainties, including inability to ascertain markets’ true sizes, infant distribution channels, copyright violations that strike at the core of the multinationals’ competitive advantages, high-regulatory risks, and corrupt business environments.3 This section highlights some representative risks at macro-environmental, industrial, and corporate levels that affect multinationals’ performance in China.

Written by Dr. Chao Yuang Shiang

Faculty in Dep. of Finance, Nan Hua university

4-December-2016

by 趙永祥 2016-12-04 16:52:01, 回應(0), 人氣(154)


China Economic Development Analysis and Prediction


Up to now, China economic growth is being supported by stimulus, but is set to edge down further to 6.1% by 2018. At the same time, risks are rising. The economy is undergoing transitions on several fronts. Private investment will be reinvigorated by the removal of entry restrictions in some service industries, but held back by adjustment in several heavy industries. Housing prices are again rising fast in the bigger cities, but working off housing inventories in smaller cities will take time. Consumption growth is set to hold up, especially as incomes rise and urbanisation continues. Reductions in excess capacity will ease downward pressure on producer prices but consumer price inflation will remain low. Import demand for goods will be damped by on-shoring, while services imports, in particular tourism, will grow rapidly. Exports will be held back by weak global demand and loss of competitiveness.


The following statements are current situation in China economic development


1.Fiscal policy, including via the policy banks, is very expansionary. 


2.Monetary policy prudence is called for so as not to aggravate imbalances. 


3.Removing implicit public guarantees and ending bailouts would make for better and more market-based pricing of risk. 


4.Corporate debt has risen substantially to high levels and the enterprise sector therefore needs to deleverage. 


5.Supply-side reforms to cut excess capacity need to accelerate and bankruptcy of zombie firms be made easier. 


6.Leveraged investment in asset markets should be contained and monitored.


7.Public investment should focus on efficiency and avoid crowding out the private sector. 

8.New revenue sources, such as property taxation or a more progressive personal income tax, can be used to meet increasing spending needs for public services and social security. 

9.Fiscal relations across government levels should be revamped so that local mandates are adequately funded.


Written by Dr. Chao Yuang Shiang

4-December-2016



 

by 趙永祥 2016-11-07 07:45:28, 回應(0), 人氣(158)


How Do Negative Interest Rates Work? 

Do Negative Interest Rates Impact Your Money 

Throughout financial history, it has been the same. When you deposit money in a bank, the bank pays you for the privilege of holding your money.

The bank then takes that money and lends it out to other individuals and businesses at a higher rate. Essentially, this is how banks have turned a profit for centuries. The idea of negative interest rates has been an intellectual curiosity discussed from time to time in academic circles of macroeconomics.

Starting two years ago, these theories are no longer just a curiosity—negative rates are now a reality in the world of finance. In fact, it is the stated policy of some of the biggest central banks in the world.

The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the central banks of Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland have all dropped their interest rates below zero since early 2014.

What Are Negative Rates?

Basically, negative interest rates mean that instead of paying out interest to a depositor, a bank charges a fee to that depositor for the privilege of storing their money in a bank. More often, this is meant to work at the central bank level, but it could also be applied to consumer banking.

How Do Negative Interest Rates Work? | Negative Interest Rates Explained

The idea behind central banks instituting negative interest rates is the same as any other interest rate cut that we might see. The goal is to encourage investment and consumer spending in order to jumpstart economic growth. The only difference is that we are now breaking what was previously considered to be the zero limit.

Negative rates are meant to punish banks that choose to stockpile cash instead of lending out that money to businesses or individuals.

Will This Negative Rate Trend Continue?

When the question of negative interest rates was put to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at a Congressional hearing in early 2016, she did not immediately dismiss the idea.

“We’re taking a look at them…I wouldn’t take those off the table,” Yellen said. While it is unlikely that the U.S. will be seeing negative yields in the immediate future, the mere fact that the idea was not dismissed out of hand illustrates just how mainstream the idea of negative rates has become.

If Negative Interest Rates Become the Norm, How Will This Affect You?

We will explore nine real-world scenarios that could play out if negative rates continue to rise in popularity among the world’s central bankers.

  1. Negative rates for the consumer
  2. Upheaval in retirement instruments
  3. Consumers will be encouraged to invest in real estate
  4. More manufacturing jobs
  5. Better cash flow for small businesses
  6. Instability and distrust in financial markets
  7. Pay to store paper money
  8. Currency wars
  9. Mortgages that pay you

Banks Will Pass Along Negative Rates to the Average Consumer

Perhaps the most obvious immediate consequence we might see with negative interest rates will be the passing along of that cost from the central bank to the consumer. If the bank has to pay to store its cash overnight in a central bank, then it might turn and squeeze the consumer for the same privilege. So, we might see savings accounts with, for instance, a negative 0.5% interest rate.

In practice, we have not yet seen this happen at the consumer level in any of the countries with negative interest rates. Typically, the bank will advertise a positive rate of return but then charge fees to consumers, causing the effective interest rate to be less than zero.

Economists predicted that negative interest rates on savings accounts would lead to consumers pulling their cash from the banks in droves. In reality, it seems as though consumers are willing to pay a small fee for the convenience and security of storing their cash in a bank account.

What is certain, however, is that banks are not passing 100% of their losses onto customers. Much of the profit is being squeezed from banks. While this might not greatly harm the largest banks in the world, it might be a problem for smaller community banks, which already struggle to turn a profit.

A negative interest rate policy would likely see the increased consolidation of the banking system, as many smaller banks simply couldn’t handle the further restriction of profit margins.

Upheaval in Retirement Instruments

One key factor in this discussion is the effect of negative interest rates on bonds.

Bonds are widely used to provide stable investment over the long-term for retirement accounts, balanced against what is thought to be the more volatile stock market. But when negative interest rates are introduced, bond markets are greatly affected.

negative rates-min

In practice, we have seen bonds drop to negative rates. For instance, in mid-February 2016, a two-year Swiss government-issued bond had a rate of below negative 1 percent. And even 10-year bonds were offering an interest rate below zero. This is an indication that the markets consider it likely that negative rates will continue in Switzerland for many years.

Additionally, this has affected not only government bonds but also corporate bonds. While negative corporate bonds are still rare, debt bonds for large stable companies like Nestle have dropped below zero.

So what does this mean for your retirement? Well, it is unclear at this point, but there will undoubtedly be changes.

We might see investment firms putting more of their clients’ cash into stocks rather than bonds or even holding a larger percentage of retirement funds in cash, rather than securities.

At the heart of the issue, negative interest rates would most likely mean lower returns for retirement investors, at least in the short-term.

Consumers Will Be Encouraged to Invest in Real Estate

How will negative interest rates affect real estate? Well, there are a number of factors at work here.

Firstly, negative rates will encourage banks to drop the interest rates on the mortgages they extend, which will mean better interest rates for consumers.

Secondly, the first-time homebuyer will be motivated to buy early, rather than waiting until he or she has amassed a large down payment. In the past, it made sense to store cash in a savings account until one could afford a 20% down payment.

With negative interest rates, it is not so clear. If the prospective buyer waits five years for his or her savings account to fill up, a negative savings rate will have chipped away at that down payment.

So, we might see interesting new rates on home loans. This might also mean an even greater expansion of low or no-down payment mortgages, which in turn would affect the housing market.

The interest rates on these loans could be even more attractive than the conditions we saw under the housing bubble of 2007-2008. Hopefully, we could avoid the problems that followed the collapse of that bubble.

More Manufacturing Jobs

One of the desired effects of negative interest rates is the devaluation of the country’s currency. This devaluation, in turn, makes that country’s exports more attractive to foreign trade.

This could mean the creation of jobs within the country, as companies would theoretically need to expand their production and workforce in order to meet increased foreign demand.

One of the key topics in the 2016 US Presidential Election has been the issue of manufacturing jobs. America continues to lose jobs as companies move overseas in order to reduce labor costs.

A negative interest rate, and subsequent devaluation of the dollar to other currencies, could incentivize manufacturers to continue production in the U.S. rather than moving abroad.

Small Businesses Could Operate More Cleanly

An intriguing real world effect of negative interest rates would be the incentive to pay bills early. At both the business-to-business and the consumer level, consumers will be encouraged to pay off their bills if they have the capital rather than stash that cash in savings accounts with negative yields.

This would help to alleviate one of the classic problems facing businesses of all sizes: cash flow. Small businesses in particular have major problems getting companies and individuals to pay their invoices in time, causing problems with payroll.

This often leads to businesses operating with a smaller team than they would like or reducing investment in upgrades that would otherwise help increase sales and production.

In this way, negative interest rates could be a real boon to small businesses. Instead of having outstanding accounts payable, it would be easier to get people to pay their bills, which would allow these small businesses to reinvest those funds where they are most needed.

In a similar way, large companies would be encouraged to do the same. Companies like Apple, which has historically held massive stores of cash, would be encouraged to invest in its own ventures or in other companies, or else pay out this cash in dividends to shareholders.

Instability and Distrust in the Markets

It is not all rainbows and fairy dust, though. One of the main objections to the large-scale introduction of negative interest rates is the idea that this would cause instability and distrust in markets across the board.

To many institutional investors, the idea of negative interest rates is still highly experimental and does not cause a great deal of optimism in the global economy.

Major asset manager Pimco has warned against the effects of negative interest rates in a February 2016 statement, saying that the “efficacy on growth or inflation is far from certain,” that “policymakers may have significantly underestimated the economic risks,” and that the policy appears to have “a chilling effect on financial markets.”

Assessments such as this have thrown cold water on the experimental idea of negative interest rates.

While touted as something of a “miracle cure” for what ails global markets, it is not at all clear what the long-term effects of negative interest rates might be, nor what might happen if a major entity like the Federal Reserve were to institute them.

Currency Manipulation

Negative interest rates could lead to currency manipulation and currency wars. Individuals and institutions are desperate to find a profit somewhere, so they might be motivated to gamble on foreign currency, hoping that the increase of that currency in relation to their home currency would make up for the negative interest rate.

With currency devaluation an explicit goal in the introduction of negative interest rates, this would almost certainly play out to some degree. Currency wars almost never end well for the world economy, as these processes tend to reduce overall international trade and restrict market growth.

Mini-Storage Vaults

Now that we have discussed the possibility of negative interest rates restricting global economic growth and causing uncertainty worldwide, let’s get back to discussing some of the more interesting theoretical ideas that have been tossed around.

While in practice we have not seen a run on the banks, with individuals removing their cash in droves, it does raise some fascinating ideas.

An enterprising individual might open a secure vault and charge consumers “rent” in order to house $100 bills in a secure vault. If a business like this could house the cash for less than the fees that banks would charge, it could make sense for high-level depositors.

Of course, it would make for some exciting new heist films, too.

Mortgages That Pay You

Picture this: you have a variable rate mortgage that is pegged to the central bank rate. For instance, when the central bank interest rate is 2.0%, you pay 3.5% interest. At a central bank rate of 3.0%, you would pay 4.5%.

Now imagine that the central bank rate is negative 2.0%. In some cases, it is possible that your rate could be negative 0.5%, effectively causing the bank to pay you for the right to loan you money to buy your house. Incredible, no?

While many do have minimum interest rates called “collars” in place, it seems that some mortgages do not have a lower bound for variable rate, known as “tracker” mortgages.

It would be very interesting to see how this plays out, as mortgage lenders would no doubt fight any such calls.

Conclusion: 

Let’s Just See Where This Goes

As negative interest rates become increasingly popular across the globe, the actual effects of this experimental policy are not at all clear.

Over the next couple of years, we will wait to see how global markets, and the banking sector, are affected. While we have not yet seen massive changes at the consumer level, it will surely only be a matter of time before individuals are affected by these policies.

It will also be intriguing to watch how long central banks continue with the policy, in the event that markets do not react positively to these changes.

Will we see a doubling-down on the negative interest rate policy, with central banks cutting the rate further in order to stimulate growth? Or will we see a reversion to more traditional policies?

In the coming months and years, expect the world to hang on every word that comes out of the Federal Reserve, as this could be the major economic story of 2016 and beyond.

Written by Dr. Chao Yuang Shiang

7-November-2016

by 趙永祥 2016-11-01 00:39:47, 回應(0), 人氣(90)


China’s Economic Indicators, Impact On Markets



Read more: China’s Economic Indicators, Impact On Markets | Investopedia 


China is the world’s second-largest economy behind the United States. Its gross domestic product (GDP) has seen double-digit growth over the last three and a half decades (although it has begun to slow down). China’s economy has a profound impact on the global economy and markets. Understanding and keeping tabs on its economy is not as straightforward as it is with other economic heavyweights.

Some Background

Since the late 1970s China has transitioned from Communism to a centrally controlled capitalist market. Its economic transformation began in 1978 when capitalist market reforms were introduced. In the decades that have followed China has transitioned from a rural agricultural economy to a manufacturing or industrial and consumer or service-oriented economy. It's the largest agricultural and manufacturing economy in the world.

China continues to rebalance its economy. The focus now is more on domestic consumption versus industry and exports. (For more, see: China's GDP Examined: A Service-Sector Surge.)

As the world’s most populous country, with 1.4 billion people, its consumer purchasing power is widely watched. The initial public offering earlier this year of Hangzhou-based e-commerce company Alibaba Group (BABA) the largest in history. It raised $25 billion on the New York Stock Exchange. Alibaba’s version of Cyber Monday or Black Friday, called Singles’ Day, resulted in $9 billion in sales in November 2014. (For more, see: Alibaba's Top Competitors.)

Economic Indicators

While there are a variety of economic indicators for China its rapidly changing economy is not easy to understand and assess, often lacks transparency and leaves economists, analysts, bankers and investors alike scratching their heads. Legendary fixed-income fund manager Bill Gross once called China “the mystery meat of emerging-market countries,” in an interview with Bloomberg Television. (For more, see: China's Economic Indicators.)



Read more: 



http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/112614/chinas-economic-indicators-impact-markets.asp


by 趙永祥 2016-10-03 10:09:27, 回應(0), 人氣(65)


ADB report

https://www.adb.org/publications/reports
by 趙永祥 2016-10-03 08:20:26, 回應(0), 人氣(116)


Economic Forecasting Survey


The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of more than 60 economists on more than 

10 major economic indicators on a monthly basis.


http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&r=20

by 趙永祥 2016-06-14 18:54:24, 回應(0), 人氣(276)


Economic Indicators and Releases


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Flash Services PMIMay 26, 20169:45 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing SurveyMay 26, 201611 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Pending Home SalesMay 26, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods and ServicesMay 25, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (Monthly) FHFA HPIMay 25, 20169 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
International Update ( covers recent developments in foreign public and private pensions )May 25, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Flash Manufacturing PMIMay 24, 20169:45 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
New Residential Sales (New Home Sales)May 24, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Richmond Fed Manufacturing SurveyMay 24, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Survey of Current BusinessMay 23, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Existing Home SalesMay 20, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)May 20, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook SurveyMay 19, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) MinutesMay 18, 20162 p.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
ISM Semiannual Economic Forecast (Institute for Supply Management)May 18, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Consumer Price Index (CPI)May 17, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (G17)May 17, 20169:15 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
New Residential Construction (Housing Starts)May 17, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Real EarningsMay 17, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Empire State Manufacturing SurveyMay 16, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
NAHB Builder ConfidenceMay 16, 201610:00 a.m.HomeArchiveMonthly
Treasury International Capital (TIC)May 16, 20169 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Producer Price Index (PPI)May 13, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Multifactor Productivity TrendsMay 5, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Senior Loan Officer Opinion SurveyMay 2, 20162:00 p.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Employment Cost Index (Quarterly)Apr. 29, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
College Enrollment and Work Activity of High School GraduatesApr. 28, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Housing Vacancies (Quarterly)Apr. 28, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
SSA Annual Statistical SupplementApr. 28, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Business Employment Dynamics QuarterlyApr. 27, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveQuarterly
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) StatementApr. 27, 20162:00 p.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Income of the Aged Chartbook ( from SSA )Apr. 27, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Income of the Population 55 or Older ( from SSA )Apr. 27, 2016--HomeArchiveOther
Gross Domestic Product by IndustryApr. 23, 201610:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary WorkersApr. 19, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveQuarterly
Productivity and Costs by Industry: Selected Service-Providing and Mining IndustriesApr. 7, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
U.S. International Investment PositionMar. 31, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Occupational Employment and WagesMar. 30, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Social Security Programs Throughout the World: The AmericasMar. 29, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
State Personal Income (Annual)Mar. 27, 20169 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Employment Situation of VeteransMar. 24, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
State Personal Income (Quarterly)Mar. 24, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
U.S. International Transactions (Current Account) (Balance of Payments)Mar. 17, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Tourism Sales (Quarterly)Mar. 16, 20168:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Multifactor Productivity Trends in ManufacturingFeb. 16, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveBiennial
Major Work Stoppages (Annual)Feb. 10, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Union MembersJan. 28, 201610 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances (H41)Dec. 31, 20154:30 p.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Money Stock Measures (H6)Dec. 31, 20154:30 p.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Finances of Selected Public Employee Retirement SystemsDec. 28, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveQuarterly
Foreign Exchange Rates (H10)Dec. 28, 20154 p.m.HomeArchiveMonday
Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax RevenueDec. 28, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Selected Interest RatesDec. 28, 20154:15 p.m.HomeArchiveMondays
Women in the Labor Force: A DatabookDec. 28, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Leading Indicators from the Conference BoardDec. 17, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Employment ProjectionsDec. 9, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveBiennial
Work Experience of the PopulationDec. 9, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Employment Trends Index (Conference Board)Dec. 7, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Help Wanted OnlineDec. 2, 201510 a.m.HomeArchivemonthly
Personal Consumption Expenditures by StateDec. 1, 20158:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Local Area Personal IncomeNov. 19, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Nonfatal Occupational Injuries and Illnesses Requiring Days Away From WorkNov. 19, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Social Security BulletinNov. 12, 20158:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
International Economic TrendsNov. 2, 20155 p.m.HomeArchiveQuarterly
SSI Annual Statistical ReportOct. 29, 20158:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
SSI Recipients by State and CountyOct. 29, 20158:30 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Fast Facts & Figures About Social SecurityOct. 26, 20158:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Social Security Programs Throughout the World: AfricaOct. 8, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Multifactor Productivity Trends For Detailed Manufacturing IndustriesSep. 29, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan AreaSep. 23, 201510:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Census of Fatal Occupational InjuriesSep. 17, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
OASDI Beneficiaries by State and ZIP CodeSep. 15, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Consumer Expenditures (Annual)Sep. 10, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Summer Youth Labor ForceAug. 18, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
OASDI Beneficiaries by State and CountyAug. 6, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Employee Benefits in Private IndustryJul. 24, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Real Personal Income for States and Metropolitan AreasJul. 1, 20158:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
American Time Use SurveyJun. 24, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Persons With a Disability: Labor Force CharacteristicsJun. 16, 201510:00 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Labor Force Characteristics of Foreign-born WorkersMay 21, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Characteristics of Minimum Wage WorkersApr. 30, 20158:30 a.m.HomeArchiveNone
Productivity and Costs by IndustryApr. 28, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Employment Characteristics of FamiliesApr. 23, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Asia and the PacificApr. 2, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Number of Jobs, Labor Market Experience, and Earnings GrowthMar. 31, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveBiennial
Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Annual)Mar. 4, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Volunteering in the United StatesFeb. 25, 201510 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Template ( Common Format and Currency ( the U.S. Dollar ) for All Countries )Jan. 30, 20154 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Monetary Developments in the Euro AreaJan. 29, 20154 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Euro Area Investment Fund StatisticsJan. 20, 20154 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Euro Area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) statisticsJan. 16, 20155 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Euro Area Securities Issues StatisticsJan. 13, 20154 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Long-term Interest Rate Statistics for EU Member StatesJan. 13, 20154 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Euro Area Monetary Financial Institution (MFI) Interest Rate StatisticsJan. 8, 20154 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Richmond Fed Survey of Services and Retail ActivityDec. 23, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)Dec. 22, 20148:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Monetary TrendsDec. 16, 201412 p.m.HomeArchiveMonthly
Philadelphia Fed Livingston SurveyDec. 12, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance ProgramDec. 8, 20148:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
European Central Bank (ECB) Balance of PaymentsDec. 8, 20144 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
ICSC Chain Store Sales TrendsDec. 4, 20142 p.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
IRS Statistics on Income BulletinNov. 28, 20148:30 a.m.HomeArchivenone
Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (Quarterly) FHFA HPINov. 25, 20149 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Retail E-commerce Sales (Quarterly)Nov. 18, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional ForecastersNov. 17, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
State Transportation StatisticsOct. 31, 20148:30 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Social Security Programs Throughout the World: EuropeSep. 30, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveBiennial
Employee TenureSep. 18, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveBiennial
Worker DisplacementAug. 26, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Euro Area Economic and Financial Developments by Institutional SectorJul. 29, 20144 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Congressional StatisticsJun. 11, 20148:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Earnings and Employment Data for Workers Covered Under Social Security and Medicare, by State and CountyMay 20, 20148:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Employment Experience Of YouthsMar. 26, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Annual Capital Expenditures Survey (ACES)Mar. 12, 2014--HomeArchiveAnnual
National Economic TrendsJan. 8, 201412 p.m.HomeArchiveMonthly
Occupational Outlook HandbookJan. 8, 201410 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Small Area ( State, County, & School District ) Income & Poverty EstimatesDec. 11, 2013--HomeArchiveSchedule
Workplace Injuries and IllnessesNov. 7, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
National Transportation StatisticsOct. 31, 20138:30 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Social Security Policy BriefOct. 31, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveNone
Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) for Counties and StatesAug. 31, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Productivity and Costs by Industry: Wholesale and Retail Trade, Food Services and Drinking PlacesAug. 29, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs for All Employees in Manufacturing, Supplementary Tables, 1996-2007Aug. 15, 20138:30 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
International Indexes of Consumer PricesAug. 1, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
International Unemployment Rates and Employment Indexes, 2007-2009 (seasonally adjusted)Aug. 1, 20138:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
E-commerce Multi-sector ReportMay 23, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Public Elementary-Secondary Education Finance DataMay 21, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Mass Layoffs (Quarterly)May 13, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveQuarterly
Multinational CompaniesApr. 18, 20139 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
State Government Tax CollectionsApr. 11, 2013--HomeArchiveAnnual
Expenditures of the Aged ChartbookApr. 1, 20138:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Federal Government Employment and Payroll DataMar. 31, 2013--HomeArchiveAnnual
Local Government Employment and Payroll DataMar. 31, 2013--HomeArchiveAnnual
State Government Employment and Payroll DataMar. 31, 2013--HomeArchiveAnnual
State and Local Government Employment and Payroll DataMar. 31, 2013--HomeArchiveAnnual
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) SurveyMar. 24, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Green Goods and Services EmploymentMar. 19, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Federal Assistance Award Data SystemFeb. 18, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
State Government FinancesJan. 8, 2013--HomeArchiveSchedule
State and Local Government Employee-Retirement SystemsJan. 8, 201310 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
State and Local Government FinancesJan. 8, 2013--HomeArchiveSchedule
Hourly Compensation Costs for Production Workers in Manufacturing, 33 Countries or Areas, 22 Manufacturing Industries, 1992-2005Dec. 19, 2012--HomeArchiveOther
International Comparisons of Hourly Compensation Costs in ManufacturingDec. 19, 201210 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Research and Development Satellite AccountDec. 10, 201210 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
State Economies at a Glance (Number of Jobs in Select Industries in States and Metropolitan Areas)Dec. 7, 20128:30 a.m.HomeArchiveNone
International Comparisons of Manufacturing Productivity and Unit Labor Cost TrendsDec. 6, 201210 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
International Comparisons of GDP per Capita and per HourNov. 7, 2012--HomeArchiveAnnual
Chartbook of International Labor ComparisonsSep. 25, 2012--HomeArchiveOther
Comparative Civilian Labor Force Statistics, Ten CountriesJun. 7, 201210 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization for StatesJan. 31, 20128:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOne-off ?
Harmonised Competitiveness Indicators for the Euro AreaDec. 15, 20114 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
County Compensation by IndustryDec. 14, 20118:30 a.m.HomeArchive
State Assistance Programs for SSI RecipientsNov. 15, 20118:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Employment and Wages, Annual AveragesNov. 14, 201110 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Health Plan Provisions in Private Industry in the U.S.Aug. 15, 20118:30 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Personal Income for Metropolitan Areas (Annual)Aug. 9, 20119 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Occupational Pay Comparisons Among Metropolitan AreasMay 26, 201110 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Employment and EarningsMay 2, 20118:30 a.m.HomeArchivemonthly
Consumer Expenditures Biennial ReportSep. 16, 201010 a.m.HomeArchiveBiennial
ChinaApr. 26, 20108:30 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Census Bureau Economic Briefing RoomDec. 18, 2009--HomeArchiveSchedule
Report On Quality Changes For Motor VehiclesDec. 15, 200910 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
International Hourly Compensation Costs for All Employees, by Sub-Manufacturing IndustryDec. 4, 2009--HomeArchiveOther
International Hourly Compensation Costs for Production Workers, by Sub-Manufacturing IndustryAug. 12, 2009--HomeArchiveOther
National Income and Product Accounts RevisionJul. 31, 20098:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Foreign Investor SpendingJun. 4, 20098:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Hourly Compensation Costs for Production Workers in Manufacturing (SIC Basis), 30 Countries or Areas, 40 Manufacturing Industries, Selected Years, 1975-2002Apr. 14, 2009--HomeArchiveOther
Annual Industry AccountsDec. 15, 20088:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Benchmark Input-Output Accounts of the U.S. EconomySep. 21, 20078:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Business Employment Dynamics by Size of FirmDec. 12, 200510 a.m.HomeArchiveQuarterly
Work At HomeSep. 22, 200510 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Computer and Internet Use at WorkAug. 10, 200510 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Contingent and Alternative Employment ArrangementsJul. 27, 200510 a.m.HomeArchiveBiennial
Workers on Flexible and Shift SchedulesJul. 1, 200510 a.m.HomeArchiveOther
Capital Flows in the U.S. EconomySep. 30, 200310:30 a.m.HomeArchiveSchedule
Employment and Average Annual Pay for Large CountiesNov. 21, 200210 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Average Annual Pay in Metropolitan AreasNov. 8, 200210 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Average Annual Pay by State and IndustrySep. 24, 200210 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
Respirator Use and PracticesMar. 20, 200210 a.m.HomeArchiveAnnual
*We cannot provide a link to this proprietary data but a good description is likely to be available soon after the release at news.google.com . Search on "Michigan Consumer Sentiment".

Last Update: June 14, 2016Created by Jean Roth March 8, 2002
by 趙永祥 2016-04-13 23:37:53, 回應(0), 人氣(183)


How do we Protect Ourselves from the Crash of 2016?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qLyc5orwPM&nohtml5=False

by 趙永祥 2016-04-13 23:32:06, 回應(0), 人氣(170)


Why The Crash of 2016 Will Happen?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06WOhNgXBZw

by 趙永祥 2016-03-27 10:00:03, 回應(0), 人氣(119)


FINANCIAL CRISIS 2016 
- Will Dollar ($) Collapse ?
(CIA Insider Interview)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFmQ52XWIOI



Indications


PROJECT PROPHECY - CIA Insider Interview, 
Project Prophecy 2.0 Predicts Terrorist Attacks , Fall of Dollar...
And what many Americans do not know is that their findings were dramatically different than the conclusions reached by the government's 9/11 Commission.

The CIA determined that bets against the stocks of American and United Airlines reached dramatically heightened levels in the days before Al-Qaeda operatives hijacked the three planes that would be used in the attacks on the Twin Towers and Pentagon.

The fourth plane was downed near Shanksville, Pennsylvania after passengers overtook the terrorists.

From their investigation, the CIA came to an important conclusion.

Using the financial markets, they could identify imminent threats to our national security from terrorists, rival nations, and from internal weaknesses lurking inside our economy.

This led to the launch of a sensitive operation called Project Prophecy. And its mission was clear.

Prevent another 9/11. And it may have done just that.

The system built from Project Prophecy proved its accuracy on August 7, 2006 when it detected the warning signs of an impending terrorist attack.

Three days later in London, a plot to blow up 10 U.S. passenger jets was thwarted. And 24 Pakistani extremists were arrested.

However, one of Project Prophecy's architects is now warning that the next attack is about to strike us.

Only this time it is going to come from within.

Jim Rickards is a 3-decade veteran of Wall Street's biggest investment firms and hedge funds. He also helped build the technology infrastructure known as "the brains" of the NASDAQ.

And he is the CIA's Financial Threat and Asymmetric Warfare Advisor.

In an exclusive interview with Money Morning, Rickards revealed that he and his team have detected a series of dangerous economic signals that predict a fast-approaching $100 trillion meltdown.

And they believe it will lead to an event more severe than the 1930s.

A 25-year Great Depression.

Their estimated date for this catastrophe is
.

Making matters worse, they believe it is impossible to stop.

Editor's Note: Money Morning has released their exclusive interview with Jim Rickards to the public. And it's a must-see for every American who is concerned about our country and their financial security. Click here to view it.
"Everybody knows we have a dangerous level of debt. Everybody knows the Fed has recklessly printed trillions of dollars. These are secrets to no one," Rickards said in the interview.

"But all signs are now flashing bright red that our chickens are about to come home to roost."

One of the warning signs Rickards revealed that the CIA is closely monitoring concerns the Misery Index.

Decades back it was created to determine how close our country was to a social collapse. It simply adds the true inflation rate with the true unemployment rate.

However, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly changed the way it has been calculated over the years.


Keywords

#CIA
#Pentagon
#Greatdepression
#dollar
#economy
#economycollapse
#dollardrop
#debt
#depression
#system
#collapse
#deathofmoney
#stockmarket
#911
#unitestates
#federalgoverment 


All news articles, including images and/or videos shown are the property of their respected owners and used in accordance with the Fair Use doctrine of The US Copyright Laws.

by 趙永祥 2016-03-27 09:56:40, 回應(0), 人氣(177)


Global Financial Meltdown
- One Of The Best Financial Crisis Documentary Films



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQzEWeGJLP0

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