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South-Eastern Europe Economic Development (6-March-2019)
by 趙永祥 2019-03-08 09:03:55, Reply(0), Views(58)





South-Eastern Europe Economic Development





This month's Eastern Europe newsletter includes articles on 


 South-Eastern Europe  
Economic growth in SEE set to slow to a decade low in 2019

  Central & Eastern Europe 
CEE to face cyclical downturn this year as Eurozone pullback looms 

  CIS Economies
Russia’s woes continue to weigh on full-year regional growth prospects

 Turkey
Erdogan accumulates more power in effort to rekindle battered economy

 Russia
Putin outlines economic priorities for 2019 amid tumbling popularity 

 Ukranie
Political novice leads polls ahead of 31 March presidential vote 

 Blog Post
The Turkish Economy: What's In Store For 2019?

 Czech Republic
Q4 2018 growth exceeds expectations
 
Our full reports are available online
 

South-Eastern Europe 
Economic growth in SEE set to slow to a decade low in 2019

Along with a dismal performance in Turkey following years of unsustainable policy support, the South-Eastern Europe region will feel the pinch this year from the ongoing economic slowdown in the European Union, the region’s main trading partner and source of FDI. A deeper slowdown in the European Union, fiscal slippages and domestic tensions in some countries pose the main downside risks to the SEE economic outlook for this year.

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Central & Eastern Europe
 
CEE to face cyclical downturn
this year as Eurozone pullback looms 

Looking ahead, the regional economy is expected to continue cooling down this year as the region’s major-player economies approach the tail-end of the current business cycle. External-sector uncertainty looms; deteriorating economic activity within the Eurozone and, more broadly, a pullback in global trade could upend the region’s export-oriented industries

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CIS ECONOMIES  
Russia’s woes continue to weigh on
full-year regional growth prospects

Russia’s economy is expected to slow as last year’s value-added tax hike exacerbates inflation and bruises household spending. On the external front, too, the region’s heavyweight economy will face myriad challenges, including the possibility of additional U.S.-imposed sanctions and constrained oil and gas output. Smaller economies in the region will likely bear the brunt of slower remittances growth from Russia, as well as higher borrowing costs. As 

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TURKEY 
Erdogan accumulates more power in effort to rekindle battered economy  

Incoming data for Q1 remains weak. Consumer sentiment fell again in February on a pessimistic outlook on the economy. Coupled with the softest growth in consumer credit in over 16 years in January, this bodes ill for household consumption in Q1. Moreover, business confidence stayed pessimistic and the manufacturing PMI remained entrenched in contractionary territory in February. This follows a likely weak outturn in Q4 2018. Private consumption suffered from high inflation and interest rates, as highlighted by the steepest retail sales contraction in December since current records began

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RUSSIA
Putin outlines economic priorities
for 2019 amid tumbling popularity 

Growth hit a six-year high in 2018, driven by a strengthening external sector and booming construction activity at home. Adding to the positive news, on 8 February, Moody’s upgraded Russia’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3 with a stable outlook, raising it to investment grade. Against this backdrop, on 20 February, President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual state-of-the-nation speech

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UKRAINE 
Political novice leads polls ahead of
31 March presidential vote 

Upbeat end-of-year economic data is rolling in as the election season nears full swing. Growth accelerated in Q4 amid buoyant domestic demand. Private consumption seemed to have been bolstered by tightening labor market conditions and a strong hryvnia, as demonstrated by healthy retail sales growth in Q4. On top of that, exports continued to expand, albeit modestly, against the backdrop of feeble external demand conditions. Available Q1 data, however, paints a mixed picture: While industrial production tumbled in January, soaring retail sales reflect upbeat consumer demand. 

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Blog Post

he Turkish economy endured a rollercoaster ride last year. Economic activity boomed in H1, as the government ratcheted up spending in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in June. Economic imbalances intensified in tandem, with the current account deficit and inflation soaring.

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CZECH REPUBLIC 
Q4 2018 growth exceeds expectations

Recently-released national accounts data revealed the economy ended last year on a solid note, with annual growth in Q4 accelerating from the modest showing in Q3 and landing well above market expectations. Notably, quarterly growth picked up to a one-and-half-year high. Soaring fixed investment, particularly in construction and machinery equipment, and healthy private consumption—buttressed by an overheated labor market, brisk wage growth and elevated consumer confidence—drove the fourth-quarter expansion.

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