Our Consensus is for energy prices to average around 2% higher in 2024 than in 2023. This is mainly due to higher oil prices, which should be supported by ongoing OPEC+ cuts and stronger economic momentum in China—our panelists expect Brent crude oil to average at USD 86 per barrel next year. Gas prices are also forecast to rise, boosted by higher U.S. LNG exports and tight Russian gas supply. In contrast, coal prices are forecast to fall as countries increasingly shift to cleaner fuels.

Base metal prices to fall:

Softer economic growth in some key developed markets will see base metal prices average 3% lower in 2024 compared to 2023, according to our panelists. This will be partly offset by a likely uptick in economic momentum in China—the world’s largest consumer of most base metals—with further Chinese stimulus measures a key upside risk.

Precious metal prices seen broadly stable:

Precious metal prices are projected to be largely stable in 2024 from 2023. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar and rate cuts by global central banks will provide support to all precious metals. Moreover, silver will benefit from expanding electric vehicle and solar energy markets and platinum will gain ground due to the ongoing shift away from palladium in vehicles. That said, lower inflation will provide downward pressure, given precious metals are generally seen as a hedge against high prices.

Agricultural prices to pull back:

Our panelists expect agricultural prices to average around 8% lower in 2024 compared to this year. The easing of drought conditions in Argentina and Uruguay will boost global grains supply, while Ukraine will gradually build alternative trade routes to overcome the expiration in July of the Black Sea Grain Initiative with Russia. Export restrictions in emerging markets, the adverse impact of El Niño and an intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war are upside risks.

Insights from our analysts

On oil, EIU analysts said:

“The global oil market is set to remain extremely tight in 2024. We expect Saudi Arabia to observe the reduced production quotas that it has agreed with its partners in the OPEC+ group of oil exporters until the end of the first quarter of 2024. The country is also unlikely to increase output markedly over the rest of that year.”

On copper, ING’s Ewa Manthey said:

“Although in the longer term, the outlook for copper remains bullish because of its key role in the energy transition, for 2024, it will be the supply and demand balance that will drive the copper price, with lagging Western demand and surging Chinese production dampening the outlook in the short-term.”